Posen on slower growth in the UK compared to the USA
Adam Posen is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee featured in Extract 1 of the OCR F585 paper for June 20120. He has consistently argued that the Bank of England should maintain their policy of ultra-low policy interest rates and also expand QE if and when the economic conditions require it. In a speech to the National Institute this week, Adam Posen contrasted the differences in economic recoveries in the United States and the UK.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Revision on Capital Investment
Here is a planned answer to an exam question
“Explain two factors that are likely to affect the level of aggregate investment.”
read more...»Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit
Leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting for the 4th time to discuss a deepening of economic ties within the fast-growing bloc of countries. The acronym BRIC was first coined by Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs in 2001. Recently he suggested another group of countries that deserved to be included in a broader grouping of high-growth and increasingly influential economies in the world economic system.
These countries make up forty per-cent of the world’s population and over a fifth of global GDP. Crucially they, and another cluster of rapid-growth countries will be the main drivers of world growth in the years ahead even though they are not immune to the financial volatility and commodity price inflation inflicting external shocks on advanced nations.
One of the key items on the summit’s agenda is a proposal to establish a “BRICS Bank” that would fund development projects and infrastructure in developing nations. The summit is also on opportunity to discuss ways of building intra-BRICS trade, which expanded by 28 percent last year to $230 billion. There are divisions within the BRIC grouping - for example Brazil’s criticisms of China’s exchange rate policies but the summit is a reminder that the balance of power and influence in the world economy is changing forever.
Here is a selection of news articles and videos covering the BRICS summit for 2012
read more...»Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump
The recession and weak recovery is bringing about important employment and income distribution effects among different generations in Britain. The externalities of a slump are never uniform and I hope that good examiners at AS and A2 level will always reward students who bring comments and arguments about equity / fairness into their evaluative discussions. Recently there has been increased media coverage of the inter-generational effects of the financial crisis and the recession.
read more...»Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis
Professor David Blanchflower didn’t pull his punches when he was a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and he is making his mark once more with an attack on what he views as the Coalition government’s lacklustre approach to tackling youth unemployment. Blanchflower is reported in the Guardian as wanting zero national insurance contributions for employers who take on younger workers in depressed regions and localities. And he wants greater investment in vocational education in schools and colleges with the school-leaving age raised to 18.
read more...»Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area
Newly published and revised figures for growth in the UK economy show that output fell by 0.3% in the final three months of 2011, and that, over the year as a whole, real GDP in Britain climbed by a paltry 0.7% during the year as a whole. To put that into context, the crisis-ridden Euro Zone achieved growth of double that largely because of a strong performance from Germany.
Output in the UK remains well below the peak before recession engulfed the economy in the autumn of 2008. In the charts and links below we track some of the key economic indicators as the country stuggles to achieve a durable and resilient / robust upturn.
read more...»George Buckley at the Millfield Economics Society
Millfield’s Economics Society was privileged recently to welcome George Buckley, Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK economist, to the school to deliver a lecture on the current state of the UK economy. Laura Dearman reports on his talk and the issues raised in discussion.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Evaluating 3 Years of Quantitative Easing
It is now over three years since the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England cut policy interest rates to 0.5% and subsequently introduced a policy of quantitative easing (or an asset purchase programme) now worth £325 billion.
These have been difficult times for the Bank. The average rate of CPI inflation since 2008 has averaged 3.5% - well above the official target - and the Bank has faced pressures from many sectors of the economy not least the millions of pensioners and other net savers whose incomes have been dragged lower by this period of ultra-low interest rates.
Has conventional monetary policy lost its effectiveness in the aftermath of the global financial crisis? Bank lending continues to fall, consumer and business confidence is fragile, many people have seen interest rates on unsecured credit rise not fall, and the depreciation of sterling seems to have had a muted expansionary effect on demand, profits and jobs.
Here are a few evaluation slides on Monetary Policy and the Bank of England from our recent A2 macroeconomics revision workshop together with some links to recent news reports on the Bank of England’s strategy and the impact of policies such as QE.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment
This news video from the BBC focuses on a man who has been out of work for over two years in the seaside town of Weston-super-mare a town dominated by tourist businesses where employment is highly seasonal. It provides a strong short case study in the problems of people who have been out of paid employment for a long time. Watch the piece here
Channel 4 news have a special section on the unemployment crisis in the UK economy. Follow this link for fresh teaching and studying resources on unemployment. Follow this link for the Channel 4 News Jobs Report
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The $1-a-day Statistic
Here is a superb piece from Ruth Sutherland on the BBC news website on the background to the creation of the $1 a day benchmark for people living in absolute poverty. Much progress has been achieved why has the $1-a-day figure had to change and what have been the unintended consequences of a heavy policy focus on this number?
Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery
We were looking today in AS macro at the policy options being considered as part of a strategy to drive a stronger recovery in demand, output, jobs and investment in the UK economy.
I am trying to encourage my students to put things into context as soon as possible in their longer essay-style questions. Here are some thoughts on a question on policies designed to bolster growth:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: News Videos on the German Economy
Germany is always an economy worth looking at by students keen to deepen their awareness and understanding of the European economy. There has been a number of good background news stories on the changing centre of gravity in the German and the EU economy and in this blog I am providing links to some of them - all ideal for prompting discussion in the classroom.
read more...»TED Talks- Income Inequality
I’m going to use Richard Wilkinson’s very interesting TED talk about the serious negative effects of income inequality in my lesson tomorrow about income distribution. Read on to find out about this video and how I will use it to aid classroom discussion of this topic.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on UK Manufacturing
There have been lots of stories in recent days about the future for UK industry / manufacturing - here is a selection of audio and video links:
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds
Students of A2 macro will no doubt becoming increasingly familiar with coverage of sovereign wealth funds in their study of global economics, trade, investment and currency developments. A sovereign wealth fund is a government or state run investment fund usually created by supernormal profits from natural resources such as oil, gas or minerals. Here is some brief background on them:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession?
The international price of crude oil has been rising strongly in recent weeks and threatens to be an external factor driving an already weak Euro Zone and UK economy back into recession.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect
We have followed Stephen Stubbs on the economics blog before. This committed man from the north-east of England has been out of work for more than a year and had filed nearly two thousands job applications in a concerted and lengthy pursuit of a fresh job. What marvellous news it is that he has found work with the student loans company. Here are two videos that tell the story of his long and difficult pathway to finding new work.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Rosling on China and the UK Converging
Here is a lovely three minute Newsnight video featuring Hans Rosling on the convergence in income per capita and health outcomes between China and the UK. Great presentation.
Unit 2 Macro: Targeted Tax Cuts to help the Economy
The Confederation of British Industry is a lobbying organisation and seeks to promote and protect the interest of many of the UK’s leading businesses across manufacturing and services. Ahead of the March Budget, their head John Cridland argues in this video for a series of targeted tax cuts as a stimulus for the economy. This is worth watching to get a feel for what are the priorities of business at this stage of the cycle. How much different would it be if the interviewee was representing the trade unions?
read more...»Pinterest: Board on Developments in the EU Economy
Here is a new macroeconomic board drawing together news flow on key developments in the European Union economy as the continent struggles to overcome the financial, political, economic and social crisis: Pinterest European Economy Board
Unit 1 Economics: Panorama - Poor America
For those of you who missed this week’s panorama “Poor America” it is well worth 30 minutes of your time. Students often assume that a high GDP per capita always leads to the good life for all- this programme highlights inequality well.
Video clip: Poor America: ‘Some kids are making ketchup soup’
The Panorama programme on America’s poor is available to view for the next 12 months - click here
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique
In the last twelve months two huge discoveries of natural gas have been made in the East African country of Mozambique. The latest - a deepwater discovery - is said to hold over 210 billion cubic metres of natural gas and investment in exploiting the field could be the major cataylst for a rapid phase of growth and development for one of the world’s poorest countries. The country has large untapped oil, coal and titanium reserves in addition to the gas. According to the UK Trade and Investment body, within 15 years Mozambique could be Africa’s second largest coal producer (after South Africa) and one of the largest coal exporters in the world.
Can it benefit in a sustainable way from exporting these resources or will they prove to be a curse on development?
For many years Mozambique has been afflicted by a brutal civil war which ended in 1992 and then a series of natural disasters including floods in 2001 and 2001 which destroyed much of its infrastructure.Floods were replaced by a calamitous drought in 2002 but more recently the economy has achieved strong growth and progress in lifting people out of absolute poverty. That said, 50% of Mozambicans living on less than $1 a day, foreign aid accounts for nearly half of government spending and there remain severe doubts about whether the dividends of an export-boom in natural resources will feed through the the majority of the population.
The Mozambique government has a 10% stake in the newly-discovered gas fields, it sold a licence to the Italian company Eni to explore for new gas reserves and Eni has committed to building a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas terminal in the country as a distribution platform to export mainly to fast-growing Asian economies.
Other transnational companies are investing in Mozambique. Vale, a Brazilian multinational is spending over $3 billion to rebuild and extend the 425 mile Nacala railway and connect it to a deep water port so that Mozambiquan coal can be exported.
Putting the infrastructure in place will take several years and gas production on a huge scale may not start before 2016. Although new industries brings risks as well as opportunities, the potential for a step change in development in the country is enormous.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Is the UK Economy Turning a Corner?
Joe Lynam reports for BBC Newsnight on prospects for the UK economy - an excellent short feature on attempts to grow the economy and achieve a re-balancing towards exports and investment. See also BBC news: Bank of England says UK economy ‘to zigzag’ this year
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: King on the UK Economy
Here are some notes from watching and listening to the Bank of England Inflation Report press conference. As always there was much for students of macroeconomics especially those keen to pick up some of the key thoughts of policy makers as we strive to achieve a sustained recovery.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering
New data suggests that the rapid growth of exports from China is once again slowing down. This Reuters business news video (2 minutes) provides some useful background information on the recent downturn in export and import volumes and mentions that rising imports and a shrinking trade surplus may help the Chinese to rebalance their economy and perhaps provide a demand stimulus for exporters from struggling European countries.
That said the continued weakness of many EU countries will make it difficult for Chinese exporters to maintain sales and employment. During the global recession of 2008-09 millions of workers in Chinese manufacturing industry lost their jobs prompting many to return to their rural homelands in search of work and income.
* Which industries in China are likely to be most affected by a reduction in the growth of exports?
read more...»Unit 3 Micro: Richard Wilkinson on Inequality and Economic Harm
I have been using this talk given at TED 2011 by Richard Wilkinson when teaching the topic of poverty and inequality and the risks that a growing chasm between low and high income groups can have for society and economic performance. Students and teachers familiar with the work of Pickett and Wilkinson and their recent book “The Spirit Level” will know well the approach that these authors take.
They use published data on inequality and link to wide differences in a range of economic and social outcomes. Their work has been criticised by many on the right, not least because their argument is strong and clear - namely that we need to reduce inequality to tackle some of society’s deepest and most corrosive problems.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro:Video Resources on Human Development Data
Here is a short collection of short video resources on measuring human development with specific reference to the annual human development report and to progress in improving welfare in countries such as Kenya and Brazil
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Growth and Development - Some Indicators
The dictionary definition of ‘development’ is to improve, to progress, or to grow – but development is not just about growth! It is concerned with the improvement of human welfare within an economy, and so it encompasses concepts such as the standard of living, cultural identity and political freedom.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Signs of Progress for Zimbabwe
Just a few years ago the Zimbabwean economy was in collapse and meltdown and the political system on the point of disintegration under the disastrous handling of the dictator Robert Mugabe. When hyperinflation ruled, a sign once appeared in the toilets of a hotel in Harare, “please do not flush Zimbabwean dollars down the toilets”
Three years since the creation of a coalition government, there are some tentative but notable signs of improvement. Inflation has fallen and the use of the US dollar and other regional currencies as legal tender has helped to finance essential imports of basic products. Unemployment remains above 75% of the labour force and there is huge absolute poverty, but the glimmers of hope are there as shown by this recent news report from AlJazeerah English.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The Economic Disaster of Youth Unemployment
The official figures show that there are now more than one million young people counted as unemployed in the UK although the precise scale of the jobless crisis is difficult to measure accurately. Nonetheless, it represents a fundamental economic, social and political problem and one that policy makers must address.
In this video report from Al Jazeerah, Lawrence Lee visits Leeds to find a well qualified nineteen year old with good qualifications but who cannot afford to go to university and is finding it tough to win a place in the police force - his main ambition.
read more...»
