UK Economy: Has High Inflation Damaged the Economy?
What are the costs of a higher average rate of inflation? With CPI inflation staying persistently above target over much of the last six years, to what extent has this undermined UK macro performance? Or has a little extra inflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy (0.5% base rates and £375bn of quantitative easing) been a price worth paying to avoid an ever deeper recession and depression?
"The high retail price inflation seen in recent years has outpaced earnings and eaten into household spending power. Ongoing relatively high inflation will continue to impact consumer spending, especially with unemployment unlikely to fall quickly. The effect on consumer spending will vary between different demographic groups and product sectors, causing companies to revisit their offerings."
Here is the link to the Ernst and Young report - click here
Paul Ormerod: Scotland could be a scientific test bed for monetary theory
According to the Scottish National Party, after the referendum on independence next year, Scotland will be a land of milk and honey. The highest per capita levels of public expenditure in the UK can easily be sustained. The whole of the revenue from North Sea oil and gas will belong to Scotland, regardless of the wishes of England and the Shetland Isles. Scotland can remain within the EU, despite clear statements from Brussels that it would have to reapply for membership, and the near certain Spanish veto this would attract.
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UK membership of the EU - a chance for students to make Nigel Farage laugh or cry
The UK's membership of the EU is among the hottest of topics at the moment. With the UKIP party doing so well in recent elections and various senior political figures starting to show their real views on UK membership of the EU club even Barrack Obama was giving his opinions yesterday. This doesn't mean that the topic is any more likely to turn up on macro-economic exam papers over the next few weeks at AS and A2 (the OCR AS paper has already been and gone! Hope it went well) - the papers will have been written before the more recent votes.
However, the economic question about the UK's membership has been an important topic for quite a while and so it is worth having a look again just in case it rears its multi-lingual head. Added to that, students of economics will be in an ideal situation over the next few years to be able to make an informed decision in any referendum, based upon having some of the facts and figures and having developed their outstanding evaluative skills on the matter!
With this in mind, follow this link to find a short (10 minute) teaching resource that asks that very simple question - What are the economic arguments for and against remaining in the European Union? The Powerpoint file has a 4 minute timer to give students the chance to think about the answer and then a nice little graphic illustrating some possible answers that they could use in an exam. The BBC have also produced a succinct balanced webpage on a similar question.
UK Economy Revision - Downloadable Revision Sheet
Here is a link to a downloadable revision handout on key UK economic data designed for AS and A2 macro papers this summer. I hope it might be useful for some students and teachers.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Linda Yueh - New Column on the Global Economy
The BBC's Chief Business Correspondent Linda Yueh @lindayueh has new page on developments in global economy http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/correspondents/lindayueh/ - definitely one for students and teachers to follow. The opening article focuses on a concept that we have been pushing in our own macro coverage in recent times, namely the emergence of a multi-polar world economy with growth coming from a bigger number of countries / regions and less dependent on the advanced western economies. Read the article here
Does it matter if we are in a recession?
Those of you who avidly follow Geoff Riley's blogs on this website may have read that he advises students to avoid getting too worked up about whether the economy is actually in recession.
Most economic students will readily tell you the official definition of a recession and can analyse the impact of an under-performing economy. However, it was interesting to read today that, having officially avoided a triple-dip recession last month we may have to revise whether we actually sank in to a double-dip recession in the first place. Follow this link to read the Telegraph's report on how the ONS are revising recent statistics on the economy's performance, suggesting that the shrink in the construction industry shrank by 5.0% (not 5.4% as originally reported) in the first three months of 2012 and, as a consequence, the UK did not slip into another recession.
As Geoff would tell you, whether the country was in a recession or not is the not the most important factor - the economy's sluggish growth should be the paramount concern and the word 'recession' has become more of a political tool. In the upcoming exams, students should remember that the avoidance of a double-dip or triple-dip is fairly irrelevant - the overall performance is the key indicator and there is still plenty to be worried about.
The exams are nearly here - as if you need reminding! Well, here’s a reminder!
Here's a very simple, but totally unsubtle reminder for your students on the upcoming dates and times of the AS and A level exams in Economics for the AQA, Edexcel and OCR awarding bodies.
Follow this link to download the 'Exam Countdown' file. There you will find a small and easy to use Powerpoint file called 'Exam Countdown'.
Follow this link for a quick tutorial on how to use the resource.
Open and run the slideshow (ensuring that you have 'enabled macros'). The screen will change to a setup slide after a couple of seconds. Click on the exam that you wish to remind your student about and the countdown timer will start. The timer shows how many days, hours, minutes and seconds remain before their exam starts. There's nothing like instilling a sense of urgency!
Please note this file is fully functional. If you would like an editable version (where you can edit the times, dates and 'event') you will find one as part of the 'Super Teacher Utility Belt' resource available from our PowerPoint games-based learning site.
Unit 4 Macro: Suggested Paragraph Structure for Strong Evaluation
This presentation looks at three evaluation questions in A2 macro and suggests an approach to scoring high marks for evaluation.
UK Economy Revision - Policies to Reduce Unemployment
Here is a streamed (and downloadable) presentation on policies to cut unemployment in the UK economy.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Credit Constraints and the Economic Recovery
The credit crunch is widely regarded to have started during 2007 and is certainly not over yet! Indeed the period of severe constraints on credit availability and rising borrowing costs most notably for smaller businesses has now lasted longer than the Second World War. It represents a major barrier to sustained and hopefully more robust economic recovery. This short streamed presentation looks at the importance of the credit squeeze on the UK economy.
A number of new government policy initiatives have been introduced but doubts persist about their effectiveness. Underneath the surface new forms of business finance are taking shape including peer to peer lending and the rise of retail bonds issued by a number of businesses.
read more...»Infrastructure Projects in the News
This blog entry links to some of the significant UK infrastructure projects that are current or planned - all of which cover many aspects of economics including cost benefit analysis, public and private funding, the macro effects of major capital projects and regional / industry implications.
read more...»AS and A2 Key Term Glossaries
Brought together in one blog resource - click below for details
Paul Ormerod: The Reinhardt and Rogoff miscalculation
The distinguished American academic economists, Carmen Reinhardt and Ken Rogoff, have been very much in the news. Their 2009 book, This Time is Different, was a comprehensive examination of financial crises over the past 800 years. The work received many plaudits and awards. They suggested that when the ratio of public debt to GDP in a country rose above the 90-100 per cent range, the chances of a financial crisis increased sharply. And the consequence was that economic growth in the country would be adversely affected.
The UK Peace Index - highlighting the opportunity cost of violent crime
I'm always sightly dubious about statistics and information represented by campaign organisations - I'm left with the reservation that information can presented in any way that you want to prove whatever point that you are trying to make (wasn't it an economist who came up with the phrase 'lies, damned lies and statistics'?). So this fascinating report from an organisation called 'Vision of Humanity' needs to be looked at with an open mind.
However, if you take it at face value, it offers some really interesting information.
read more...»AS, A2 & IB Economics Revision Quizzes - Master Listing
[updated 22 April 2013]
Our Economics team have been busy over the last few weeks authoring a comprehensive new collection of multiple-choice revision questions designed to support AS, A2 and IB Economics students.
Over the next couple of weeks, we'll be uploading these quizzes to the tutor2u website and also creating Zondle versions to enable them to played using the tutor2u mobile and tablet App.
Please bookmark and share the link to this blog entry and visit regularly to check on our progress as we add new revision quizzes.
read more...»A2 Macro: Revision Notes on Growth and Development in India
Link here to a revision note on aspects of growth and development in India (revised April 2013)
read more...»The Angry Economist 2 - The George Osborne Edition (evaluating macroeconomic policies)
He's back but he's still angry! In this latest version of The Angry Economist, our favourite curmudgeonly analyst wants to know students' opinion on George Osborne's economic policies - no wonder his blood pressure has risen!
This simple Powerpoint resource is aimed at getting your students to analyse and evaluate economic policies - 8 of the Chancellor's policies are presented and the Angry Economist randomly picks a macro-economic objective to consider. All you have to do is get 8 volunteers from your class to do the analysing - a great 10 minute activity whilst revising for the up-coming macro exams at either GCSE, AS or A2 level.
Here is a list of the policies the Angry Economist wants students to look at (you may wish to recap on them before you start the activity):
- Reduce Government debt
- Increased number of private sector jobs
- Increased allowance before Income Tax needs to be paid
- Cut Corporation Tax
- Set up Regional Growth Fund
- Funding Lending Scheme
- Deregulating some planning rules
- Frozen Council Tax
Of course, the beauty of this resource is that you can change any of these policies to whatever you want them to be.
Click on this link to download the Angry Economist 2.
PS. Click on this link to have a look at the original Angry Economist.
Paul Ormerod: Whatever happened to all those miners? Shocks and economic resilience
Where have all the miners gone? To judge by the rhetoric of the BBC and other Leftist media outlets, whole swathes of Britain lie devastated, plagued by rickets, unemployment and endemic poverty – nearly thirty years after the pit closures under Lady Thatcher!
The reality is different. There is indeed a small number of local authority areas where employment has never really recovered from the closures in the 1980s. But, equally, there are former mining areas which have prospered.
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Unit 4 Macro: Growth and Development Challenges for China
Here are some notes taken from a talk given by Linda Yueh on the Chinese economy at the RSA in London on the 18th April, 2013
read more...»Scoop it Boards for Economics
A growing number of teachers are curating Scoop It Boards focusing on specific exam courses or aspects of the subject - ranging from ones on market failure and government intervention through to international economics, China, and relevant articles and resources for papers such as OCR F585 and Pre U. Maybe students can be encouraged to curate and develop their own boards as a way of keeping a study log of interesting blogs, news features, analysis and evaluative pieces?
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Taking the Pulse of Africa - Growth Outlook is Good
The latest edition of African Pulse published by the World Bank focuses on growth and development prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and the overall sentiment is that the region is set to continue with a strong growth performance.
read more...»Unit 2 and Unit 4 Macro: Economic Simulation - the Government Game
Introducing The Government Game - tutor2u's new Economic Simulation game that is just perfect for revising for AS & A2 Macroeconomic Policy topics!
Unit 4 Macro: Graphic Illustration of Global Inequality
The LSE’s Jason Hickel writes, narrates and directs this short video looking at the extreme truth of how wealth is divided globally.
Unit 4 Macro: Language Proficiency and Labour Mobility in Europe
Increasing foreign language proficiency could be a key policy tool for encouraging greater mobility of labour between countries of the European Union and reducing the huge differences in rates of youth unemployment. According to research by Professors Ainhoa Aparicio-Fenoll and Zoe
Kuehn, including foreign language studies in the compulsory school curriculum fosters migration across European countries.
Paul Ormerod: Sovereign debt and Euro zone reality
The recent debacle in Cyprus has essentially been shrugged off by the markets. The European Central Bank vigorously asserts the crisis in the Euro zone is over. So why is there continued unease about the financial viability of countries such as Spain and Portugal, a morass into which even the French are now being dragged?
Economic theory helps us understand a bit more about why this is the case. One thing which the last few years in Europe have shown very starkly is the massive difference between debt which is denominated in nominal terms and that which is in real terms. Nobel Laureate Chris Sims makes the point clearly in his recently published Presidential Address to the American Economic Association.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: From Domestic Product to Domestic Progress
A newly constructed Social Progress Index has been unveiled for the first time with the hope that over time, it might become as widely quoted and recognised as the Global Competitiveness Index as a benchmark of progress made by individual countries in achieving sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth and development. In the 2013 rankings, Sweden comes first and the United Kingdom is second.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Research on the Economics of Migration
The annual NORFACE migration conference at University College London this week has generated plenty of new research papers on the economics of international migration, a topic that of growing significance for students of globalisation, competitiveness, innovation and growth. Some of the key findings are summarised below together with external links to relevant articles and news reports
read more...»Economics Revision - Mind Map and Visual Notes Competition
There are thousands of AS and A2 students out there at the moment putting in some serious hours of revision ahead of the May and June papers. Effective revision is more of an art than a precise science but many students are producing some superb mind-maps, revision flash cards and other visual resources to telling effect.
We like to showcase some of them at this stage of the year. In the spirit of friendly competition, we will offer some book prizes to our favourite mind maps and similar revision notes. You can email them through to us (ideally one image per mind map, 800 x 600 size works best for us but we can resize any image). Or post them on twitter and add @tutor2u or @tutor2u_econ to your tweet so that we can see them!
We will announce the winners on the 1st of May! Check below to see some of the early entries. This blog will be updated on a regular basis.
read more...»Unit 2 and Unit 4 Macro: Unicef Child Well-Being Report 2013
Unicef have just released their latest 'report card' on the relative state of well being among children in 29 of the most wealthy countries. The report (a full version and a summary) are available from this link.
The report shows pleasing progress for the UK (our place on the overall ranking has gone up from last place to 16th) with an improvement in obesity levels and a reduction in consumption of alcohol, cigarettes and drugs compared to the 2007 report.
However, worryingly, the UK is ranked 24th in the table with regards to its provision of Education. The biggest weakness highlighted, is the fact that the UK has one of the lowest percentages of young people continuing with education post 16 (only 74%) and very high levels of young people not in education, employment or training at all (nearly 10%). Students of economics could use this as evidence of government failure with regards to supply-side policies - with such a low level of participation in comparison to our major competitors can we guarantee that we are developing skills that will allow the economy to grow in the future? Could your students suggest (and then evaluate) suggestions for how this situation could be remedied?
Evaluation Snakes and Ladders - a resource
Here's a free resource inspired by an idea from Pete Davies from Greenhead College in Huddersfield (@gcupdates) using the traditional game of 'snakes and ladders' to evaluate the impact of economic policies and objectives.
The idea is to ask students to evaluate an economic objective (the example on the downloadable resource are the factors impacting on unemployment) by coming up with 5 positives (or strengths) and 4 negatives (or weaknesses). Having done this, students must then 'rank' their ideas according to which have the greater impact on the economic objective being discussed.
This ranking then determines the lengths of the ladders (the bigger the impact the longer the ladder) and the snakes. Having chosen one answer from a student that has fully justified their response you can then input their suggestions and get the whole class to have a quick game of snakes and ladders on screen. Perhaps a nice way to spend the last 10 minutes of a heavy revision session!
Click on this link to download the resource.
Pete Davies contributed to the team developing resources and presenting at the Tutor2u Wow Economics teacher CPD event. Upcoming versions of the event are advertised on this website.
