Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…...
How long can China keep its comparative advantage of cheap production for manufacturing goods? We are aware of rising inflation in China which is eroding their advantage, and here is an article about a UK firm which manufactures cushions, some from a factory in Kirkby on Merseyside and some from his factory in the Zhejiang province in China. The story comes from a programme ‘The Town taking on China’ to be shown on BBC2 at 8pm tonight - and subsequently on i-player.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China
Productivity is a measure of the efficiency with which a country combines capital and labour to produce more with the same level of factor inputs. We commonly focus on labour productivity measured by output per person employed or output per person hour.
A better measure of underlying productivity growth is total factor productivity which takes into account changes in the amount of capital available for each worker to use and also changes in the size of the labour force.
To give a simple numerical example, if the size of the capital stock grows by 3% and the employed workforce expands by 2% and output (GDP) increases by 8%, then total factor productivity has increased by 3%.
China has achieved impressive gains in productivity in recent years. Some of this is undoubtedly the huge spending on capital investment which has grown to nearly 50% of China’s GDP. The labour force has also grown although this is scheduled to level off and then decline in the years ahead.
What has driven improvements in Chinese total factor productivity?
read more...»Global Economy- the 2012 BRICS Summit
Leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting for the 4th time to discuss a deepening of economic ties within the fast-growing bloc of countries. The acronym BRIC was first coined by Jim O’Neill from Goldman Sachs in 2001. Recently he suggested another group of countries that deserved to be included in a broader grouping of high-growth and increasingly influential economies in the world economic system.
These countries make up forty per-cent of the world’s population and over a fifth of global GDP. Crucially they, and another cluster of rapid-growth countries will be the main drivers of world growth in the years ahead even though they are not immune to the financial volatility and commodity price inflation inflicting external shocks on advanced nations.
One of the key items on the summit’s agenda is a proposal to establish a “BRICS Bank” that would fund development projects and infrastructure in developing nations. The summit is also on opportunity to discuss ways of building intra-BRICS trade, which expanded by 28 percent last year to $230 billion. There are divisions within the BRIC grouping - for example Brazil’s criticisms of China’s exchange rate policies but the summit is a reminder that the balance of power and influence in the world economy is changing forever.
Here is a selection of news articles and videos covering the BRICS summit for 2012
read more...»Solar Panels and Tariffs
The US and China rely heavily on each other for trade but retaliatory protectionist policies continue to be a recurring theme between these two nations that prevent the free movement of goods and services between the two countries. Allegations that the undervalued Yuan gives an unfair advantage to Chinese exporters, twinned with high US unemployment has led to protectionist American responses and a tariff (tax on imports) on Chinese solar panels to protect this strategic and growing industry. The move followed a review by the US Commerce Department which in a preliminary decision claimed that Chinese firms are benefiting from unfair export subsidies.
read more...»Which is the world’s biggest employer?
One of my favourite little statistical gems has always been the claim that the NHS is the world’s third largest employer, after the Indian Railways and the Chinese army, so it is deeply disappointing to find that this is not true - it’s actually only the fifth on the list with 1.7 million staff.
Ahead of the NHS are McDonalds’ global workforce in 4th place (1.9 million), Walmart, including Asda in the UK in third (2.1 million), the Chinese army 2nd with 2.3 million and, at the top of the table, the US Department of Defense with a whopping 3.2million staff - although only 1.6 million of these are on active service,with the rest in civilian and other support roles.
read more...»Evidence of the dangers of protectionism
One of the dangers for a country implementing protectionist measures is the risk of retaliatory action. We have only to look at US-China trade relations to find plenty of evidence for this. The US objects to what they see as a Chinese policy of deliberately holding down the value of the yuan in order to boost Chinese exports. However, in addition to this they also object to government subsidies which the Chinese government give to some of their producers in order to help lower their production costs and so make their goods even more competitive in world markets.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds
Students of A2 macro will no doubt becoming increasingly familiar with coverage of sovereign wealth funds in their study of global economics, trade, investment and currency developments. A sovereign wealth fund is a government or state run investment fund usually created by supernormal profits from natural resources such as oil, gas or minerals. Here is some brief background on them:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Rosling on China and the UK Converging
Here is a lovely three minute Newsnight video featuring Hans Rosling on the convergence in income per capita and health outcomes between China and the UK. Great presentation.
Unit 2 Macro: China’s Trade Engine is Spluttering
New data suggests that the rapid growth of exports from China is once again slowing down. This Reuters business news video (2 minutes) provides some useful background information on the recent downturn in export and import volumes and mentions that rising imports and a shrinking trade surplus may help the Chinese to rebalance their economy and perhaps provide a demand stimulus for exporters from struggling European countries.
That said the continued weakness of many EU countries will make it difficult for Chinese exporters to maintain sales and employment. During the global recession of 2008-09 millions of workers in Chinese manufacturing industry lost their jobs prompting many to return to their rural homelands in search of work and income.
* Which industries in China are likely to be most affected by a reduction in the growth of exports?
read more...»China bans its airlines from paying EU carbon tax
On 1st January this year, the EU introduced an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which levies a charge on flights in EU airspace based on carbon emissions. They estimate that this will add between 2 and 12 euros to flight tickets. Airlines are required to purchase emissions permits, like utilities and heavy industry in the EU, and airlines that do not comply face fines of 100 euros for each tonne of carbon dioxide emitted for which they have not surrendered allowances. In the case of persistent offenders, the EU has the right to ban airlines from its airports.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth
Export demand can be an important driver of growth and development. For many years China has practiced export-led growth with exports accounting for over 40% of GDP. China ran a trade surplus with the rest of the world of around of $200 billion in 2009 – this looks huge, but is fairly modest as a share of GDP. The surplus on the balance of payment current account has diminished from over 10% of GDP in 2007 to less than 6% in each of 2010 and 2011. But China still has a structural trade / BoP surplus.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Inflation
The super-charged growth in China has brought about a rise in inflationary pressures and is a good example of the possible conflicts between rapid economic expansion and rising costs and prices. The Chinese government’s inflation target is 4% but inflation is a growing worry for the Chinese government – after some mild deflation in 2009 there has been acceleration in the consumer price index. Agricultural prices have been a key driver of inflation with food costs up 12% in the year to March 2011.
For many commentators high inflation in China is a symptom of an over-heating economy with an unsustainable credit and property boom. Another factor behind high inflation is that Wages are rising fast in China – many economists believe that China has hit a point in its development at which demand for labour starts to grow faster than supply, creating labour shortages and pushing up salaries. This is known as a Lewis Turning Point.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Carbon Emissions and Growth
Rapid economic growth in China has led to a sharp rise in C02 emissions per head of population and also electric power consumption per capita. Per capita emissions remain well below those of rich advanced nations but China is now committed to improving the sustainability of her economic growth and also in making big advances in researching, testing, developing and investing in clean energy technologies as a source of future exports. According to the 12th Five-year Plan (covering the years 2011-2015) China aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16 percent in the five years to 2015. Carbon dioxide emission will drop by 17 percent if the plans are met.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Per Capita Incomes
Per capita incomes in China are rising though still low by advanced-nation levels. China ranks at 119 in terms of average incomes, according to World Bank data (per capita incomes, PPP adjusted). But China is now the biggest car market in the world and there has been a huge rise in the sales of luxury goods to China (these products have a strong income elasticity of demand).
China wants to achieve a re-balancing of her growth – towards domestic consumption and away from exports. Another key aim of the plans for the next 5 years is a surge in market-driven entrepreneurial activity. Plus a continued shift towards higher-value, high-knowledge manufactured products.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure
China has experienced fast growth in the last twenty years, in the last decade; the increase in Chinese GDP has been seven times the rise in the GDP of Japan. China has a new growth target of 8% pa for the next five years – a downgrading of growth but still way in excess of normal trend growth for any of the advanced economies such as the UK, Germany and the United States. In 2000, China’s accounted for 7.1% of the world’s total GDP (in PPP terms). By 2015 China will have a 19% share of global GDP. This is higher than any of the other BRIC nations
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Can China Stay Competitive
This new five minute video report from the Financial Times is excellent on the competitive pressures facing many manufacturing businesses located in southern China. Wages are rising quickly and some manufacturing businesses have already moved either to lower-cost locations within the Chinese economy or to other countries such as Bangladesh and Indonesia.
But there are alternative approaches and this video emphasises the decision that some manufacturers have made to stay put but instead to move up the value chain and produce higher-end, higher-priced products for advanced western markets. Businesses are reluctant to move factories and sacrifice the human capital that has been accumulated over in some cases over thirty years.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Population Shift in China
What happened in the UK in 1851, the United States in 1920 and in the World in 2008? These three years mark the estimated year when the size of a given urban population overtook the size of the rural population. And now China has reached this significant landmark.
The Chinese Bureau for National Statistics reported recently that in 2011, the proportion of urban population reached 51.27 percent (1.3% higher than in 2010) with the urban population standing at 690.79 million persons, an increase of 21 million persons in a year. China’s rural population stood at 656.56 million persons and for the first time her urban population was 34.23 million persons more than the rural population.
Click below for some study / teaching resources:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Exporting to the Booming Chinese Economy
Before you read this blog please have a look at another blog written by our good friend Mark Johnston from New Zealand. Students of China and the US economy will find it fascinating!
There are good grounds for no longer calling China an emerging economy - it has arrived! The multiple significance of the rapidly-growing Chinese economy is plain for all to see but for Britain, only a small percentage of our exports of goods and services go there and this must change if Britain is to fully engage with and benefit from the rising might of the Chinese consumer. This article from the Daily Mirror provides a non-technical but clear explanation of the growing purchasing power of newly wealth Chinese, thousands of whom are flocking to western shopping malls to buy premium brands. Chinese foreign exchange reserves are also being used to buy up real assets - last week we heard that a Chinese sovereign wealth fund is set to buy nearly 9% of Thames Water.
read more...»China’s newest 5 year plan - and how it could change the world!
5 year plans are synonymous with the command economies of the 20th century and although the Chinese economy bares little resemblance to what it did 30 years ago, the government still uses these plans as part of their oversight of a mostly market economy. Their latest “Weather Intervention” plan seeks to intervene in the economy on a grand scale, although not in the usual sense!
read more...»Jim O’Neill - The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond
Jim O’Neill the Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management has a new book published early next week and it looks like being a tremendous resource for teachers and students wanting to deepen their understanding of crucial changes in the global economy. The Telegraph has been publishing extracts from the book - to have a view please click on the links below:
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: China and India - Notes from Martin Wolf
Pete Davies from Greenhead College attended a superb talk by Martin Wolf CBE (Financial Times) at Leeds Business School last week. The focus was on the Great Convergence between developed and emerging economies, and Peter kindly took some excellent notes from the talk which will be of great use to teachers and students covering this key globalisation / development topics. They can be downloaded below as a word file - many thanks to Peter for making them available through the blog!
Martin_Wolf_Lecture_Oct_2011.docx
Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty?
At last night’s Senior Economics Society at Oundle we had a riveting talk by Hywel Rees-Jones, Managing Director of CDC, which covered so many areas of the issues of development economics. The talk was entitled “Can the invisible hand solve poverty in Africa?” Whilst conceding that some of the statements were broad generalisations across a variegated continent, Hywel discussed some of the key issues facing Africa.
read more...»The Return of Protectionism?
The US senate has pushed through the bill which aims to punish China for allegedly undervaluing its currency. Is passed into law it would allow Washington to impose tariffs on imports in order to protect its domestic industries. The role and impacts of tariffs and other forms of protectionism form a big part of the ‘international trade’ section of most Economics courses and this article could be a good starting point for those discussions.
Unit 4 Macro: USA edges closer to naming China as a “Currency Manipulator”
The U.S came closer to finally calling the Chinese a currency manipulator and retaliating in the new round of protectionism fears. A good summary of the key issues here.
Unit 4 Macro: When China Met Africa
Film-makers Marc Francis and Nick Francis won many plaudits and awards for their wonderful documentary Black Gold - uncovering the struggles of coffee farmers in Ethiopia to sustain their businesses against the monopsony power of multinational coffee roasters. They have a new film being released in the UK this autumn - When China met Africa. On the front line of China’s foray into Africa, the lives of a farmer, a road builder, and a trade minister reveal the expanding footprint of a rising global power. Watch the trailer using the link below.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Economic Growth and Inequality
Not all of the benefits of growth are evenly distributed. A rise in real GDP can often be accompanied by widening income and wealth inequality in society that is reflected in an increase in relative poverty.
“Although economic growth in China has created vast wealth for some, it has amplified the disparities between rich and poor. Although the average wealth per Chinese citizen was $17,126 - almost double that of other high growth economies such as India - median wealth was just $6,327. In 2010, China’s Gini-coefficient stood at 0.47. Inequality in China has now surpassed that in the United States.” Source: Dr Damian Tobin School of Oriental and African Studies
read more...»Toilet rolls, soap and climate change
This is a nice short clip explaining some basics of the economics of climate change and the impact that growth in Asia could have. Source supplied by my favourite economics blog at the moment Economists do it with models. Could be used to provoke discussion on externalities or impact of growth.
Guess where China exports its chopsticks from
Bizarre example of comparative advantage in action here, where, because of a shortage of the right kind of wood in China, ”Georgia Chopsticks, based in the southern state of Georgia, is operating around the clock to meet the demand and hopes to be exporting 10 million pairs a day by the end of the year, each set complete with a label marked “Made in USA.””. Read more here or watch the video below. HT Carpe Diem.
read more...»Capital labour substitution at FoxConn
A hat tip to Pete Davies for spotting this excellent example of capital replacing labour in FoxConn factories in China. With strong pressure for wages to rise further in Chinese manufacturing, FoxConn justify the decision on the grounds that their workers are better placed being shifted to jobs higher up the value chain.
Unit 1 Micro: Economics of Volatile Corn Prices
Corn is a soft commodity along with the likes of coffee, tea and rubber. Referred to as “yellow gold”, corn is used in products ranging from cereals, snack foods, salad dressings, soft drink sweeteners, chewing gum and peanut butter. Little wonder that shifts in the world price of corn can have a noticeable effect on the prices that we may for many popular foods and drinks.
The world’s appetite for corn is strong. In recent months there has been a surge in the global price of corn, indeed at the end of June 2011, corn prices were up 74 per cent on a year earlier. Super-high prices affect the price of feed for livestock farmers and eventually lead to more expensive foodstuffs for consumers, including millions of people in the world’s poorest countries exposed to persistent and life-shortening food poverty. Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank has said that high and volatile food prices are “the single gravest threat” facing developing countries at the current time.
read more...»
