The impact of interest rates
The US economy may have grown at nearly 3% in the last quarter of 2011, but the Federal Reserve announced last week that they do not expect to raise interest rates until the end of 2014. It has cut its growth forecast for 2012 from 2.5-2.9%, to 2-2.7%, and says that the economy faced “significant downside risks” and that it “expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy” - which I take to mean expansionary.
This article about that interest rate decision is useful for economics teachers and students as it highlights a couple of results of that announcement; firstly that the dollar’s exchange rate immediately lost value as the interest rate made the US a less attractive place to keep cash, and secondly that government benefited as the cost of its borrowing in markets for 10 years fell from 2.06% to 1.94%, as traders priced in the lower medium-term interest rate expectations.
Unit 4 Macro: Money, Debt and the New World Order
“All money these days is really a form of debt from somewhere else. We know now in 2012 that our debts cannot be repaid in full.”
Philip Coggan from the Economist was on fine form at the LSE last week when he spoke to a packed audience in the new academic building on the subject of his latest book. When trust in the monetary system breaks down we are in a very difficult place and, in a wonderfully broad historical sweep Philip Coggan offered some revealing insights into what a reformed global monetary system might look like in the years ahead.
read more...»France and Flexible Employment
This article could be useful as an illustration of the EU context in relation to employment in general, and flexible employment in particular. Attracting inward FDI is arguably a significant benefit of UK membership of the EU, and one of the advantages which the UK can offer compared to, say, France is relatively flexible employment laws.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO
I am using Russia’s entry to the World Trade Organisation in my teaching on international trade and development this term. It appear to be a significant moment for the global economy. Russia is the last member of the Group of 20 major economies to join, after China gained membership in 2001. Progress towards membership has been delayed by numerous geo-political issues not least the disputes with neighbouring Georgia.
Joining the WTO involves making a commitment to the rules of the international trade system - for Russia as with other new members, this will mean reduced import tariffs, the staged elimination of industrial domestic and export subsidies, and better greater access to foreign companies. Russia will also have to improve adherence to international accounting standards.
* Russia’s average bound tariff will be 7.3 percent for manufactured products (compared with 9.5 percent currently)
* Farm tariffs will be 10.8 percent (compared with 13.2 percent currently)
* Russia commits to zero export subsidies on agricultural products - to end by 2017
* Russia will privatise 100 pct of United Grain Company by 2012
* Russia will introduce duty-free and quota-free provisions for the least developed countries
* Russia will eliminate preferential tariffs for carmakers making large investments in Russian-based production by July 1, 2018
* Russia plans to introduce International Accounting Standards
How would you use a supply and demand diagram to show the impact of a fall in an import tariff?
Russian exports as a share of her GDP has actually been on a declining trend in recent years. Will movements towards trade and foreign investment liberalisation reverse this through trade creation and FDI effects? How can a stronger commitment to becoming an open economy supprot higher living standards over time? What are the risks for Russia of WTO accession?
read more...»Newsnight on rebalancing the UK economy
Last night’s edition of Newsnight should be required viewing for all AS and A level economists - and it is a huge shame that it is only available on i-player for another 7 days. Introduced on the shock news that even Tesco is vulnerable to the downturn, it included reports from Andrew Verity looking at whether the British economy will ever wean itself off shopping and the City, and an excellent (and all-female!) discussion including Deborah Meaden and the FT’s Gillian Tett. Try challenging your students to watch and listen to this while noting down every aspect of the syllabus which is mentioned or referred to - that will keep them busy!
There was also a debate between Employment Minister Chris Grayling and disability campaigner Sue Marsh about the government’s welfare reforms, defeated in the House of Lords the night before, and finally Tokyo correspondent Roland Buerk looking at Japanese economic stagnation of the late 1980s and 90s, to consider whether it was a “lost decade” and what could be learnt from it.
Unit 4 Macro: UK Trade Patterns
The Guardian DataBlog has a superb resource here on the patterns of UK exports and imports in 2011. Ideal for printing out and using when introducing international trade. There is more official UK trade data here
Unit 2 Macro: A Jobs Boost for the US Economy
Could 2012 provide stronger news for the US economy and offer President Obama a decisive electoral dividend in the run up to the November Presidential Election?
The recent jobs data in the USA looks more promising for hopes of a significant pick-up in growth and employment all of which will help attempts to control the fiscal deficit. This news report from AlJazeera looks at the latest US unemployment figures. Falling unemployment provides a platform for rising aggregate demand and stronger short term economic growth. And stronger economic activity in the world’s biggest economy is good news for the UK too!
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Exchange Rate Economics - Where next for the US Dollar?
Is the US dollar going to be knocked off its perch as the only true global currency? Professor Barry Eichengreen, the author of Exhorbitant Privelege argues that there are strong reasons to believe that the US dollars’ position in the world financial system will decline in the years ahead.
The US dollar has been for many years the world’s most powerful currencies but this power seems to be waning as other currencies rise in significance and the US economy struggles to recover from their financial and economic crisis and the fiscal challenge. Eichengreen argues that there will be three truly global currencies going forward - the dollar, the Euro and the remnimbi.
read more...»Spain opts for more austerity in 2012
Spain’s new government has said the public deficit for 2011 will be 8% of GDP, well above its target of 6%, and has announced increases in income and property tax along with a wage freeze for civil servants to tackle it. Looks like a very tough year ahead for the Spaniards, one of several in the last few years,as illustrated in this timeline.
read more...»European Economics: Resources on the CAP
This blog entry will provide a regularly updated set of links to resources to the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy and attempts to reform this contentious and complex system of farm support.
Check below for suggested links
read more...»2011 in Review - The US Economy
2011 for the US economy was a year of slow growth and fears of a double-dip recession, but there were some more positive signs as 2011 came to a close.
Can the world’s biggest economy sustain a more durable upturn in activity during 2012? Keep in mind that this coming year will be dominated by the lead-in to the November Presidential election.
read more...»Great Economics Blog to Follow - Danny Quah
Professor Danny Quah from the London School of Economics has a superb blog and I recommend it heartily to economics teachers and students. It is particularly excellent for understanding developments in the global economy, not least Danny’s work in plotting the changing centre of gravity in the world economy over the long term. Here is the link to use.
The LSE Public Events team has just released their programme for the New Year, there are plenty of really interesting talks coming up and you can access the Spring 2012 Events Programme by clicking on this link
Jim O’Neill - The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond
Jim O’Neill the Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management has a new book published early next week and it looks like being a tremendous resource for teachers and students wanting to deepen their understanding of crucial changes in the global economy. The Telegraph has been publishing extracts from the book - to have a view please click on the links below:
read more...»Stephen King - Great Article on Macroeconomics
Stephen’s piece in the Independent on Monday would make for a terrific Unit 4 discussion with your A2 students. Here is the link to follow Ten things people thought they knew about economics
You can follow all of Stephen King’s recent economics articles in The Independent by clicking here
Unit 2 Macro: Should the EU introduce a Tobin Tax?
AS Economics student Freddie Bickford-Smith looks at some of the argument surrounding proposals to introduce a financial transactions tax in the EU. I will post another essay on this topic from a fellow student, offering an alternative perspective from that developed here!
Following the financial crisis of the past few years, and the amassing of blame on the financial sector for it, it has come to the attention of many - including the European Commission - that there must be a way of rectifying the situation, and promoting greater economic stability.
One popular suggestion is the ‘Tobin Tax’, an idea proposed by Professor James Tobin (the Nobel prize-winning American economist) for a tax on worldwide financial transactions
read more...»Eurozone crisis - a selection of resources
How to deal with this in school? I cannot be the only teacher who is struggling to keep up with the eurozone developments myself, let alone help my students to make any sense of it. Some searching this morning has come up with a variety of articles, graphics and interviews which range from the very basic such as the one-minute video reports from Robert Peston, which might be helpful to an AS student who is just starting to get to grips with the principles of macroeconomics, to some analysis of actual and potential threats to the UK economy and graphics showing the interrelated borrowing between the eurozone countries, which might help the ambitious A2 students to stretch themselves. These are listed below, with a brief description of each one. I am sure that you will have many more to add to the list.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: America’s hour-glass economy
Here is a revealing three minute video on the challenges facing America’s declining middle class. Falling real incomes, rising living costs, deep structural unemployment problems - moving on up has got harder to do - what are the social effects of this across so many states?
Unit 1 Micro: Has the time come for a Tobin Tax?
This week I am setting my AS micro students a question on proposals for a Tobin Tax - partly because it is hugely topical and also as a way of developing their evaluation skills on paper and coming to a reasoned final conclusion. Here are some of the links to suggested reading and some video shorts on this topic:
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: China and India - Notes from Martin Wolf
Pete Davies from Greenhead College attended a superb talk by Martin Wolf CBE (Financial Times) at Leeds Business School last week. The focus was on the Great Convergence between developed and emerging economies, and Peter kindly took some excellent notes from the talk which will be of great use to teachers and students covering this key globalisation / development topics. They can be downloaded below as a word file - many thanks to Peter for making them available through the blog!
Martin_Wolf_Lecture_Oct_2011.docx
The World Economy: how did we get here and where are we going?
On Wednesday 26 October 2011, I attended a fascinating lecture at the LSE by Nemat Shafik, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF.
She started with outlining the role of the IMF as a cooperative of 188 countries (the newest member being South Sudan), who poor their resources and finances in order to support each in times of difficulty. She then went on to talk about the current slowdown, its causes, the risks involved if the slowdown was to continue and the potential policies needed to aid a recovery.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Who is to blame for the Crisis?
The new series of Stephanomics is being filmed and made available on the BBC web site. In this episode, Stephanie Flanders asks who is to blame for the global financial crisis? She is joined by the billionaire investor George Soros, Sir Howard Davies, former chairman of the Financial Services Authority and former deputy governor of the Bank of England, and Dr DeAnne Julius, chairman of Chatham House and a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee. This is gold-dust for unit 4 macro students who want some tremendous evaluation on causation of the crisis from three incredibly well-placed figures.
Tour of the US income distribution – “The L Curve”
Everyone knows about the Lorenz Curve but with the OWS events of late I came across the ‘L Curve”.
The red line represents a graph of family income across the population. The height of the curve at any point is the height of a stack of $100 bills equalling that income.
On the scale of the football field graph shown here the bottom 99% of the population measure their incomes in inches. The top 1% measure their incomes as stacks of $100 bills feet or even miles high! The total wealth of the few people in the vertical spike equals the total wealth of the rest of the population combined.
read more...»Can the “invisible hand” solve Africa’s poverty?
At last night’s Senior Economics Society at Oundle we had a riveting talk by Hywel Rees-Jones, Managing Director of CDC, which covered so many areas of the issues of development economics. The talk was entitled “Can the invisible hand solve poverty in Africa?” Whilst conceding that some of the statements were broad generalisations across a variegated continent, Hywel discussed some of the key issues facing Africa.
read more...»Who has become the first major company to back the ‘Occupy Wall Street’ protests in the US?
This will be today’s starter question for my Economics classes- and it’s an interesting one, as whilst this company expounds the ideals of independence and freedom it’s actually owned by one of the world’s largest consumer companies- who swiftly distanced themselves from the announcement
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: USA edges closer to naming China as a “Currency Manipulator”
The U.S came closer to finally calling the Chinese a currency manipulator and retaliating in the new round of protectionism fears. A good summary of the key issues here.
Economics at the Movies - Too Big to Fail
A big thank you to my former student Mike Dawes, who recommends the film of the book ‘Too Big to Fail’. The made-for-TV film has recently been shown on Sky Anytime, where you may have caught it, but if not there are some trailers and extracts available here on HBO’s website, as well as a synopsis.
Mike has also found a YouTube extract of a scene in the movie where US Treasury officials (Hank Paulson, Neel Kashkari, Jim Wilkinson) are deciding how to break the news of the AIG bailout in a press release and, in his words “there is a Scooby-Doo style unravelling of the recession which for 2 minutes is possibly one of the best explanations I have heard. They also neatly explain Credit-Default Swaps which is equally simple and may help those who were struggling to understand it.”
Andrew Ross Sorkin’s book which led to the film is available from Amazon’s US store here.
Greek debt decision tree
I have been looking for resources to use with my A2 students to investigate the Greek debt crisis, and why it is causing such global concern. So first I am really grateful to find the powerpoint that Geoff has posted to the blog this morning, which sets out the scale of the problem there very clearly. I would like to suggest another resource I have just come across which I think complements the powerpoint quite well - especially to help answer the question “What will happen if the Greeks do default?”. Someone at the BBC has devised a decision tree looking at possible outcomes which depend on how the Greek authorities respond to their “Troika” of lenders - the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank. The potential outcomes range from a pyrrhic victory in which Greece forces its lenders to write off most of its debts, but bankrupts it’s banks, to global meltdown.
What the decision tree doesn’t include is probablilites for each outcome. That could be the class activity for the week, perhaps.
Unit 4 Macro: Greek Economy at Default’s Door
A2 level economists studying macroeconomics are almost certainly going to be discussing the economics of a Greek government default in the coming days and weeks. Many of the main macro indicators for Greece have been heading in the wrong direction for some time and the country provides a rich opportunity to study the causes and consequences of a fiscal, economic and wider social crisis. I haave put together a slide presentation of ten key macroeconomic charts for Greece. Students and teachers might want to use this (and edit / improve) when discussing events as they occur in the days ahead.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Greece on the Brink of Default
AS level economists studying macroeconomics are almost certainly going to be discussing the economics of a Greek government default in the coming days and weeks. Many of the main macro indicators for Greece have been heading in the wrong direction for some time and the country provides a rich opportunity to study the causes and consequences of a fiscal, economic and wider social crisis. I haave put together a slide presentation of ten key macroeconomic charts for Greece. Students and teachers might want to use this (and edit / improve) when discussing events as they occur in the days ahead.
read more...»A gloomy outlook for the global economy
Some excellent data and analysis in today’s OECD Interim Economic Assessment. The overall picture is pretty gloomy - certainly for the US and European economies. As the press release states;
“Economic recovery appears to have come close to a halt in the major industrialised economies, with falling household and business confidence affecting both world trade and employment, according to new analysis from the OECD”
read more...»
