Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies
Lots of students will be revising the economics of supply-side policies this week with their AS macro paper coming into view. There are different interpretations of what constitutes a supply-side policy measure. I like to label SSP (supply-side policy) to any policy or group of measures where emphasis is given to improving the working of markets, raising factor efficiency, improving the quantity and quality of labour and in lifting the capacity and competitiveness of an economy in a constantly-changing international environment.
Many supply side policies focus on improving incentives and outcomes in the labour market, others are geared towards bettering the performance of markets for goods and services, All of them centre on helping to sustain non-inflationary growth, improve trade performance, lift living standards and create new and fulfilling jobs opportunities.
This revision blog looks in particular at some evaluation points on supply-side approaches:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Migration and the UK Economy
A revision blog on the economic impact of migration on the UK economy
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Positive and Negative Multiplier Effects
An initial change in aggregate demand can have a much greater final impact on equilibrium national income. This is known as the multiplier effect. It comes about because injections of new demand for goods and services into the circular flow of income can stimulate further rounds of spending – in other words “one person’s spending is another’s income”. Put another way, spending becomes someone else’s income. This can lead to a bigger eventual effect on output and employment.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Measuring Unemployment in the UK
The unemployed are people able, available and willing to work at the going wage rate but cannot find a job despite an active search for work.
Unemployment means that scarce human resources are not being used to produce goods and services to meet people’s needs and wants. Persistently high levels of joblessness have damaging consequences for an economy causing both economic and social costs.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The Output Gap
How much spare capacity does an economy have to meet a rise in demand? How close is an economy to operating at its productive potential? Has the recession damaged the economy’s productive potential? These sorts of questions all link to an important concept – the output gap. The output gap is the difference between the actual level of national output and the estimated potential level and is usually expressed as a percentage of the level of potential output.
read more...»Revision notes on unemployment
A revision blog on possible unemployment questions on AS and A2 papers
read more...»Made in China - but not quite so cheaply…...
How long can China keep its comparative advantage of cheap production for manufacturing goods? We are aware of rising inflation in China which is eroding their advantage, and here is an article about a UK firm which manufactures cushions, some from a factory in Kirkby on Merseyside and some from his factory in the Zhejiang province in China. The story comes from a programme ‘The Town taking on China’ to be shown on BBC2 at 8pm tonight - and subsequently on i-player.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Unemployment Glossary
A selection of key terms linked to the topic of unemployment
read more...»Prospects for the UK economy, in brief
The NIESR has published its latest ‘Prospects for the UK economy’ this morning - this link given is to the one-page press release. This clear document gives some stark headlines from their predictions: they consider the persistent weakness in the economy to be unprecedented, they continue to expect that CPI will fall below target by the end of the year, and they believe that unemployment will rise to 9% and stay there for some years, doing permanent damage to the supply side of the UK economy. They estimate that a 1 per cent of GDP increase in government investment this year would boost GDP by around 0.7 per cent, and would provide a boost to the short-run lack of aggregate demand. They do predict a return to growth in 2013, with some above-average growth figures for 2014, which may return the economy to its size of 2008. For the sake of the students sitting their AS and A levels in the next few weeks, let us hope that they are right.
Unit 4 Macro: Spanish unemployed head to Argentina
Catastrophically high unemployment in countries such as Spain are causing people to leave the Med in search of work elsewhere and thousands are trying their luck in South America. This short video from Al Jazeerah news looks at the growing number of people heading to Argentina looking for a job or perhaps the chance to start a new business. Watching it is a chance to revise some of the factors that affect the geographical mobility of labour? This Economist report looks at some of the causes of geographical immobility of labour.
read more...»Unit 1 Micro: End of the Road for the Lada
Boasting a steering wheel that doesn’t steer, an in car radio that is an optional extra and acceleration powers that - on a good day - can take you from 0 to 60 in less than three minutes, the Lada has for a long time been a figure of fun in global motoring circles. But production is coming to an end following a collapse in sales. As is often the case, news of the demise of the Lada has prompted increased interest among younger urban consumers whose DNA is to go against the grain and drive something that is sturdy, mercifully free of corporate design features and most of all, tremendously cheap.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Better news on jobs in the UK?
This excellent news video from Channel 4 news looks at the changing pattern of employment in the UK economy. The number of full time workers is dropping and there has been a big switch towards part-time employment. Who are the winners and losers in our labour market as the fragile recovery struggles to maintain momentum?
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Skills Shortages Hold Back Recovery
Here is a superb news report from Channel 4 news about the shortage of skilled workers in the North East of England (an area of high unemployment). Nissan this week announced a big new investment in car making at their ultra-high productivity plant in Washington, Tyne and Wear. But many of the manufacturers along Nissan’s supply chain are finding it tough to get enough skilled people coming througth to make realistic bid for the orders that will come from Nissa. Some businesses are having to turn down contracts because they dont have the extra workforce to cope with the higher volumes of businesses.
Skills shortages are restricting the growth of many small and medium sized businesses especially in manufacturing. Little wonder that Nissan is working very closely with Gateshead College to run an apprenticeship scheme - an example of external economies of scale in action.
read more...»Superb article on unemployment
Here is a superbly clear and relevant article on the Channel 4 news blog from Jonathan Portes, head of thr NIESR - it focuses on the unemployment problem facing the UK economy and outlines some policy options for cutting the jobless total. Superb for both AS and A2 macro students.
Unit 4 Macro: Unemployment Scarring Effects
In the past we have discussed some of the long term economic and social costs of a persistently high rate of unemployment and we have used the term hysteresis effects. It seems that a new term is being used to cover some of the consequences of millions of people being out of work - unemployment scarring - and this revision blog looks at some of the causes of this.
read more...»Intergenerational Equity - Fairness and the Slump
The recession and weak recovery is bringing about important employment and income distribution effects among different generations in Britain. The externalities of a slump are never uniform and I hope that good examiners at AS and A2 level will always reward students who bring comments and arguments about equity / fairness into their evaluative discussions. Recently there has been increased media coverage of the inter-generational effects of the financial crisis and the recession.
read more...»Blanchflower calls for more action to address youth jobless crisis
Professor David Blanchflower didn’t pull his punches when he was a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee and he is making his mark once more with an attack on what he views as the Coalition government’s lacklustre approach to tackling youth unemployment. Blanchflower is reported in the Guardian as wanting zero national insurance contributions for employers who take on younger workers in depressed regions and localities. And he wants greater investment in vocational education in schools and colleges with the school-leaving age raised to 18.
read more...»Budget 2012 - analysis with evidence
As ever, there are loads of sources that students can use to analyse the Budget and to extract pieces of Evidence for the Examples they will need to add depth to their analysis in essays. Those who are attending the current round of revision workshops will recognise this as a key part of ensuring that they write essays which PEEL the answer (each paragraph makes one Point, using Examples with Evidence, offering Evaluation and Linking to the question). As start points, I would suggest these sources which are reasonably free of opinions:
BBC website: Budget 2012 at a glance, Farewell 50p tax rate, and Over 65-s tax-free income freeze
The Guardian Budget 2012: welfare cuts, tax cuts too, but retreat on child benefit and for the visual learners a nice graphic version: Tax and spending plans visualised
Which is the world’s biggest employer?
One of my favourite little statistical gems has always been the claim that the NHS is the world’s third largest employer, after the Indian Railways and the Chinese army, so it is deeply disappointing to find that this is not true - it’s actually only the fifth on the list with 1.7 million staff.
Ahead of the NHS are McDonalds’ global workforce in 4th place (1.9 million), Walmart, including Asda in the UK in third (2.1 million), the Chinese army 2nd with 2.3 million and, at the top of the table, the US Department of Defense with a whopping 3.2million staff - although only 1.6 million of these are on active service,with the rest in civilian and other support roles.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Seasonal and Structural Unemployment
This news video from the BBC focuses on a man who has been out of work for over two years in the seaside town of Weston-super-mare a town dominated by tourist businesses where employment is highly seasonal. It provides a strong short case study in the problems of people who have been out of paid employment for a long time. Watch the piece here
Channel 4 news have a special section on the unemployment crisis in the UK economy. Follow this link for fresh teaching and studying resources on unemployment. Follow this link for the Channel 4 News Jobs Report
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery
We were looking today in AS macro at the policy options being considered as part of a strategy to drive a stronger recovery in demand, output, jobs and investment in the UK economy.
I am trying to encourage my students to put things into context as soon as possible in their longer essay-style questions. Here are some thoughts on a question on policies designed to bolster growth:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on UK Manufacturing
There have been lots of stories in recent days about the future for UK industry / manufacturing - here is a selection of audio and video links:
read more...»Unit 1 Micro - Labour Migration and the Economy
Migration from one country to another has become an increasingly important feature of our globalizing world and it raises many important economic, social and political issues. About 200-million people — about 3% of the world’s population — now live in countries in which they were not born. In the United Kingdom in 2010, the number of international migrants as a percentage of the population rose above 10% for the first time after several years of high rates of net inward migration
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: A Man Regains his Self Respect
We have followed Stephen Stubbs on the economics blog before. This committed man from the north-east of England has been out of work for more than a year and had filed nearly two thousands job applications in a concerted and lengthy pursuit of a fresh job. What marvellous news it is that he has found work with the student loans company. Here are two videos that tell the story of his long and difficult pathway to finding new work.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The Economic Disaster of Youth Unemployment
The official figures show that there are now more than one million young people counted as unemployed in the UK although the precise scale of the jobless crisis is difficult to measure accurately. Nonetheless, it represents a fundamental economic, social and political problem and one that policy makers must address.
In this video report from Al Jazeerah, Lawrence Lee visits Leeds to find a well qualified nineteen year old with good qualifications but who cannot afford to go to university and is finding it tough to win a place in the police force - his main ambition.
read more...»Unit 1 Micro: Can the UK Computer Games Industry Grow
Britain is one of the world’s biggest exporters of creative products - from live TV shows and music to books, arts, architecture and films the economy has built up an enviable global reputation for excellence and a growing trade surplus to aid our balance of payments.
Computer games falls squarely into this category but, according to TIGA - the trade association representing the UK’s games industry - unless there is renewed government support, the future of this sector is at risk. TIGA claims that the British games industry is suffering a significant ‘brain drain’ as talented programmers and artists leave the country to work abroad.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Living below the Breadline
This article on the appalling depth of workless households in Liverpool is a reminder of the multiple aspects of relative poverty and economic/social exclusion.
The causes of unemployment are complex - many are structural - but it is hard to draw much if any optimism from reading this article. By some estimates over one third of households in Liverpool have no one in work and second and third generation unemployment is not uncommon. This is a must article for students to read if they want a better awareness of the human cost of non-employment. Read: Below the breadline on Liverpool’s workless estates
read more...»Unit1 Micro: Can a minimum wage create jobs?
Tim Harford has a piece in his regular column in the Financial Times which discusses some of the issues surrounding the minimum wage and whether a legal pay floor can actually create jobs. Here is the link
Newsnight on rebalancing the UK economy
Last night’s edition of Newsnight should be required viewing for all AS and A level economists - and it is a huge shame that it is only available on i-player for another 7 days. Introduced on the shock news that even Tesco is vulnerable to the downturn, it included reports from Andrew Verity looking at whether the British economy will ever wean itself off shopping and the City, and an excellent (and all-female!) discussion including Deborah Meaden and the FT’s Gillian Tett. Try challenging your students to watch and listen to this while noting down every aspect of the syllabus which is mentioned or referred to - that will keep them busy!
There was also a debate between Employment Minister Chris Grayling and disability campaigner Sue Marsh about the government’s welfare reforms, defeated in the House of Lords the night before, and finally Tokyo correspondent Roland Buerk looking at Japanese economic stagnation of the late 1980s and 90s, to consider whether it was a “lost decade” and what could be learnt from it.
Unit 4 Macro: Does Manufacturing Matter?
Vicky Pryce FRSA has a new article on the economic significance of manufacturing industry for UK economic renewal. It is available here from the January 2012 edition of the RSA Journal. In a related article Sir Christopher Frayling FRSA discusses the rise of the Maker Movement.
Back in November 2011 Channel 4 news ran a special on the future for UK manufacturing here is a link to a related video
