Mervyn faces the Music
The Governor and his colleagues faced the press yesterday at the launch of the quarterly inflation report .... here is a selection of comments from them from questions fired from economics journalists, there is some great evaluation in here for AS and A2 economics students!
read more...»Surge in UK inflation
The latest figures for consumer price inflation were far worse that expected. Consumer prices increased by 0.8% in April taking the annual rate of inflation to 3.0% - right at the top of the level allowed by the government as part of the inflation target. Both goods and service price inflation moved higher as the UK economy struggles under a series of cost-push inflationary pressures. I have attached a PowerPoint file showing some of the key inflation charts.
read more...»Setting rates is no longer kids stuff
According to Roger Bootle writing in today’s Telegraph. The MPC does face an acute dilemma with evidence of surging cost push inflation and the real possibility (probability?) that CPI inflation will overshoot the 3% ceiling at some point in 2008. But Bootle argues that if the MPC is too cautious over interest rates, fearing a return to a wage-price spiral, then we might well suffer the slump in real output and jobs that characterised attempts to put the lid on rampant inflation in the 1970s and late 1980s.
read more...»UK Economy Revision Presentation
During our recent series of revision workshops for AS & A2 Economics, we looked at the key data and trends in the UK Economy.
read more...»No longer over a barrel?
David Smith turns his attention to oil prices in today’s Sunday Times and asks why the spiraling cost of crude has not hit global economic growth and inflation as much as in past oil shocks. Most of the recessions and major slowdowns in the global economy have been pre-dated by spikes in international commodity prices. Has oil now lost the power to shock?
read more...»The Monetary Stimulus
There was no change to UK base interest rates this week with the Monetary Policy Committee holding rates at 5.0% for May. Across the Channel, the hyperactive (!) European Central Bank also kept policy rates constant for what now seems like an eternity! Thank heavens the UK remains outside the Euro Zone! Whilst policy rates are at 5% for the moment, this does not mean that monetary policy is not acting as a stimulus to one or more of the components of aggregate demand (C+I+G+X-M).
The overall stance of monetary policy includes the effects of base rate movements and also changes in the external value of sterling against a basket of other currencies. So whilst interest rates have edged lower in recent months we should also take into account the major depreciation of sterling against the Euro Zone with whome we do more than half of our trade. A falling pound acts as an important stimulus to the export sector of the economy, even though the boost is muted somewhat by a slowdown in economic growth in our export markets. Will the lower pound be a white knight for the faltering UK economy?
Better off out than in?
Yes says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in his piece in the Telegraph today arguing that the UK economy might have been dealt a much tougher blow from the fallout from the credit crunch had we been locked into the single currency zone. I have been discussing this with my A2 students this morning. When external shocks occur, the key to stabilising prices, demand and output is to have a flexible supply-side, fiscal policy autonomy and control over monetary policy. The UK has all three to a reasonable degree and I cannot help thinking that the sliding sterling-euro exchange rate is key to all of this.
Ambrose writes: “As Neil Mellor from the Bank of New York Mellon points out, the pound has been perfectly hedged in this cycle. Sterling has fallen hard against the euro, giving a shot in the arm to British manufacturers (yes, they still exist, 13pc of GDP) who rely heavily on Europe’s markets: yet it remains overvalued against the dollar, softening the effect of oil, metal, and commodity inflation. The shock absorber is working. The Bank of England has already cut rates three times.”
It is interesting when you chat to city and industry economists that discussion of the possible entry of the UK into the Euro Zone is completely off the agenda, the prospect does not exist. The debate has moved on for good.
Things can only get better .....
We asked a thousand people and most of them said ...... there is trouble ahead! Consumer confidence took a further nose-dive last month according to fresh data from the Nationwide Building Society. The main reason was another steep decline in the percentage of people reported as saying that the UK economy is in good shape. This is just one survey among many, and its limited longevity doesn’t give it much of a record in anticipating turning points in the economic cycle. But if the housing market presages a wider economic downturn, it might well be one of the survey indicators to watch carefully because the shift in sentiment does not appear to have benign causes. Sixty per cent of those surveyed say that now is a bad time to make a major purchase such as a house or a new car – almost twice the number compared to two years ago.
read more...»Does a current account deficit matter?
Yes according to economist Roger Bootle writing in the latest edition of the Deloitte Economic Review and reported in this article from the Financial Times.
“Britain is headed for its highest peacetime current account deficit and both household and government spending will have to slow painfully to correct it, according to economist Roger Bootle”
read more...»Gordon’s economic history lesson
It cannot have been easy or much fun for the man. Gordon Brown’s appearance on the Andrew Marr show this morning was supposed to have been the start of the big fight-back after the appalling drubbing that he suffered at the polls on Thursday and Friday. But the garbled mixture of reassurance and platitudes about the government ‘feeling our pain’ was distinctly underwhelming. I winced ahfl way through the interview when Brown claimed that the last Labour government inherited high inflation from the Conservatives. This is simply not true. I applaud his decision to give independence to the Bank of England in May 1997, but low and (relatively) stable inflation did not appear miraculously when Blair walked into Number 10 that year - consumer price inflation (the government’s chosen emasure, but not one that most of us now look at with much credence) was already low for some years before 1997 as our chart shows. Inflation targets (introduced in the UK in 1992 after our departure from the ERM) and a favourable mix of disinflationary economic shocks, globalisation and the strong exchange rate combined to give Brown and his Treasury team an inheritance of low inflation when they came to power. Perhaps it was the stress that caused Brown to make such a shocking mistake in his attempt to teach us all a little economic history?
Haulier closes down
This ninety second video clip from BBC news is a short but powerful clip to show when discussing the effects of rising fuel prices on the profitability of a business - no bells and whistles, just a face to face interview with the owner of a haulage firm who has decided to quite because of the cost of diesel and his inability to pass on costs to consumers, the result, 21 redundancies and a firesale of the assets of the business.
Housing recession or inflation - take your pick!
Which would you rather face: a recession and house price crash or years of soaring seventies-style inflation? In normal circumstances, the Bank would have already cut the official interest rate far and fast, hoping lenders would follow suit. Two options; one nasty dilemma for the Bank of England. Edmund Conway examines the issues in today’s Telegraph.
I was listening to a talk from a city economist a couple of nights ago - it was superb, the first time I felt I really understood the underlying dynamics of the sub-prime crisis and the consequences of securitisation! One of the aspects that came out of the wider discussion was that several of the powerful forces that have driven house prices higher in recent years are now in reverse gear - namely:
A rise in real mortgage rates brought about by the credit crunch
A tightening of mortgage supply - partly reversing the process of financial innovation in mortgage products
Signs of a reversal of the high level of inward migration
and
Evidence that the lack of supply is now having less of a bearing on house prices as a better balance between demand and supply is achieved.
Revision: China and the UK Economy
Events and developments in one country inevitably have spill-over effects onto others. Your economics revision should consider some of these inter-relationships wherever possible. It will certainly help your analysis and evaluation. In this revision note we look at China
Revision note:
Revision_China_Effect.pdf
Cheaper sterling to the rescue?
For some time now I have been arguing that the media should be paying more attention to the exchange rate when considering the propsects for the UK economy over the coming months.
A cheaper currency acts as a boost to exports and aggregate demand and can be a very useful stabiliser in an economy weakening from the fall-out from the credit crunch. There are naturally risks from a sharp downward movement in the exchange rate, not least the impact on the prices of imported products and possible flow-through effects on cost and price inflation.
But taken as a whole, a lower exchange rate is what the UK economy needs at the moment - and we are getting it! Charles Bean, Chief Economist of the Bank of England made clear reference to this in an important speech in London today - it is available to download here from the Bank of England website. I have picked out one paragraph in particular which focuses on the exchange rate and compares the impact of cuts in interest rates with currency depreciations.
read more...»Revision: Recessions
“What’s the difference between a recession and a depression? A recession is when your neighbour loses their job; a depression is when you lose yours.”
read more...»Darling tries some moral suasion
Darling and Brown appear to be getting seriously worried. Darling was handed an explosive legacy by Brown when he took over the reins of Number 10 last summer and his early months as Chancellor have been dogged by the emerging financial crisis and by mounting media and political pressure over his poor performance at the Treasury. His budget speech was just about the worst I have ever heard in twenty years of listening to them. Darling is reported as saying at a meeting of G7 Finance Ministers that present turbulence was “the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression.” This is pretty strong stuff - and I question the wisdom of coming out with such a loaded sound-bite.
read more...»Chart of the Day: Imported Inflation into the UK
Our chart for the day is linked to the news that the pound has fallen to an historic low against the Euro. One of the consequences of a depreciating currency is that the prices of many of the goods and services we import from overseas goes up potentially leading to a fresh burst of cost-push inflation.
read more...»Declan and Stephanie in Discussion
This is a really good BBC video clip - an informal discussion between Declan Curry and Stephanie Flanders on some of the policy dilemmas facing the Bank of England and the different strategies open to the monetary authorites for coping with the credit crunch. There is a lot in here hidden just beneath the surface of the discussion.
Interest rates, exchange rates and annual holidays
As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England has cut the base rate by 0.25% today.
read more...»Currencies hit the Headlines
Two currency movements are in the news today. Firstly the pound has fallen to an eleven year low against the Euro with one Euro now worth eighty pence. The second currency hitting the headlines is the Chinese renminbi which has appreciated beyond Rmb7 to the US dollar for the first time since 1994.
read more...»Policy conflict for the UK economy?
The IMF is forecasting a slowdown in global growth to 3.7% in 2008 and 2009. This is in contrast to recent growth rates of over 5%.
read more...»Chart of the Day: Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index
First published in May 2004, the Nationwide Building Society’s consumer confidence index is a recent addition to the phalanx of indices seeking to track changes in household sentiment and give us a lead indicator of where the economic cycle might be heading. 1,000 adults are interviewed each month, in a survey that is the closest we get in the UK to the Conference Board surveys published in the United States,The Index is based on responses to 5 questions included in the survey:
People’s appraisal of current economic conditions
People’s expectations regarding economic conditions six months hence
People’s appraisal of the current employment conditions
People’s expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence
People’s expectations regarding their total family income six months hence
The latest figures were released today and show the weakest confidence since the survey was launched, evidence perhaps that the gloomier economic headlines dominating the papers and TV news coverage in recent days and weeks is starting to show through. Looking a little at the detail within the survey, it seems that people’s expectations for the economy in six months time are improving slightly, but on balance those surveyed still expect house prices to rise during 2008. Perhaps the news on property prices from the last few days will change this perception in the May survey?
Economic Resilience?
Gordon Brown and his Chancellor, Alistair Darling, have been keen to stress that the economy is ready to weather any storm that hits it. Although the economy remains standing, despite recent turbulence in the financial markets, it does seem like tempting fate to claim that the economy is so resilient, and capable of withstanding any disturbances that might come along. So what supports their statements, and what are the risks to the economy? This post looks at a few of the problems on the horizon.
read more...»Chart of the Day: Falling UK House Prices
No surprises for our choice of chart of the day!
House prices have seen their biggest monthly drop since the 1990s recession, according to Halifax Bank of Scotland - the UK’s biggest mortgage lender. Let us include the usual caveat that you should never read too much into one month of data - but it seems to me that virtually of the housing market indicators including many of the forward-looking confidence surveys from households, estate agents and construction companies are pointing to a hefty downturn in house prices and activity in the market over the coming months whatever the soothing comments of the housing market economists from the leading banks and mortgage lenders. From a personal perspective, I am happy for property prices to decline for a couple of years having been out of the market for some little while. It probably won’t be a rout whatever the Daily Mail and Daily Express might suggest on their front pages. But the property boom is most definitely over for now and a dampening of the ardor for bricks and mortar as almost the sole route to greater wealth is, in my opinion, no bad thing at all.
PowerPoint Charts
House_Price_Inflation.ppt
More to life than GDP?
Happiness economics is a topic very much in vogue at the moment, and this year’s edition of Social Trends has clearly paid homage to that fact by including a measure of subjective well-being: Satisfaction with standard of living and financial prospects [Table 5.5]. The data made no attempt to debunk the Easterlin paradox: while household income has increased by over 60% and household wealth has more than doubled, satisfaction with standard of living has remained constant at around 85%.
read more...»A bubble waiting to be pricked
Roger Bootle has been a long standing critic of rampant asset price inflation. In the Business Telegraph he provides a caustic and hard-nosed look at the housing market recession.
“There are two major causative factors at work. First, houses have become extraordinarily expensive, to the point where ordinary people can barely afford a shoe box. And second, the ample supply of credit which allowed this to happen is now tightening. The second may be the proximate cause of the coming fall in prices. But don’t let anyone fool you into believing that it is the fundamental cause. That prize goes to the ludicrous over-inflation of prices. In order to get on the “ladder” you have either to own property already or mortgage yourself up to the eyeballs. This has been a bubble waiting to be pricked.”
The rest of his article which is excellent for students preparing for the housing market paper (AQA unit 3) this summer can be found here
Over at the Independent, the superb Stephen King looks at the credi crunch and market failure
From Pope Pius VII to the credit crunch, market failure lives on
Chart of the Day: Construction Sector Confidence
Last week we had lots of coverage and comment on the retreat from mortgage lending by many of the UK’s biggest home finance providers. The essence of the problem is that the lenders are just not as willing to offer loans to people as they were. Profit margins have been squeezed as the wholesale cost of money has risen, and some mortgage providers have effectively left the market for the time being. This is making life very difficult for people needing to get a first-time loan or looking to renew their mortgage deals when fixed rate agreements reach an end.
The result is a sharp fall in the number of property transactions that are falling through because of problems in finding the required level of funding.
read more...»Chart of the Day: Consumer Credit
Interest rates on unsecured credit are up to five times the base rate of interest set by the Bank of England. And consumer confidence is dipping sharply as the economy heads into a slowdown. But that doesnt seem to be stopping UK consumers from piling on the debt onto their credit cards. New figures show that personal borrowing in Britain soared by its highest amount in more than five years in the year to February 2008. The level of new consumer credit surged by nearly £2.4 billion in February with unsecured borrowing growing by £1.6 billion. An act of irrational desperation? Or an inevitable and necessary move when other supplies of credit dry up? Re-mortgaging is become more expensive and less easy to arrange forcing consumers who want to live on the never-never to find fresh sources of funds. It seems crazy to me that people are prepared to do this, why not rein in spending at this time and save some more for the tougher times ahead? Perhaps most people dont expect a recession - or dont think that it will hit them directly?
PowerPoint chart
Consumer_Credit.ppt
Revision: Supply-side of the UK Economy
This revision note recaps short run and long run aggregate supply and looks at some of the key supply-side policies together with a brief evaluation of the recent supply-side performance of the UK economy. Designed for both AS and A2 students. I have also attached a PowerPoint presentation with a selection of supply-side indicators for the UK.
Revision Note (pdf format)
Revision_Supply_Side_Policies.pdf
PowerPoint Charts
Supplyside_Performance_2008.ppt
Chart of the Day: UK Trade Balance in Commodities
The UK is now a net importer of all types of commodity. For nearly thirty years we have been a net exporter of oil but this has now come to an end with the long-term decline in North Sea crude oil output. The monthly deficit in finished manufactured goods has more than doubled since 2000.
PowerPoint Chart
Commodity_Trade_UK.ppt
