Get Summer 2014 Right First Time with tutor2u Exam Coaching & Revision Workshops
I am setting my AS macro students an essay this week evaluating the economic effects of five years of ultra-low monetary policy interest rates. Tom White blogged about this a day or so ago (click here) linking to an excellent article in the Guardian. It is a great way for students to deepen and broaden their understanding and awareness of recent developments in the UK economy.
Teaching colleagues covering monetary policy might want to use the data charts on interest rates contained in the PowerPoint file shown below.read more...»
Mind the Gap! Evan Davis has produced two superb programmes on the regional imbalances in the UK economy. In the first he focuses on the agglomeration / network economies of scale that help to explain the skew in business investment towards the capital. In the second he looks at which cities elsewhere in the UK might be drivers of renewed growth of incomes, investment and growth! Here are the links:
Mind The Gap Episode 1 - click here
Mind The Gap Episode 2 - click hereread more...»
The Atlas of Economic Complexity is a new book (perfect for the coffee table) from Richard Hausmann and Cesar Hidalgo. It maps out the degree of complexity of individual economies around the world and provides a hugely visual and interesting insight into the importance of knowledge in shaping the future prosperity of countries in the global economy. I have put together a 10 question quiz on some of their key results - a useful activity I hope for students interested in the commodity composition of trade of developed and developing countries. Have a go!read more...»
Most of the commentary on the UK’s economic recovery focuses on consumers. Are they taking on too much debt again to finance their spending? Is there a bubble in house prices, as people get excited about bricks and mortar again? Certainly, in terms of its sheer size, spending by consumers is by far the biggest component of GDP, making up around 60 per cent of total domestic expenditure.read more...»
In Germany the government has reluctantly agreed to introduce a minimum wage of €8.50 (£6.98) per hour. Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union party is opposed to the idea, but need to make concessions in coalition negotiations with centre-left parties such as the Social Democrats, who have campaigned for a national minimum wage.read more...»
Despite public calls for shareholders to get tough on executive pay, a new study of the UK’s highest paid company directors reveals that shareholders are overwhelmingly inclined to approve the pay packets of top directors, just as they were before the crisisread more...»
Here is a revision presentation for an AS Macro topic - measuring national income and the standard of livingread more...»
To follow up on Hugh Pym's video which explains the difference between government debt and government deficit, here is another fantastic resource. Definitions, data and descriptions of debt and deficit, chapter and verse on the structural deficit and on government borrowing. It looks like the perfect lesson resource - as its title says, all you need to know.
He might have only had his feet under the Governor's desk for 8 months but BOE Governor Carney has announced changes to the role of the MPC for a second time as forward guidance has been overhauled.
Forward Guidance Mark II began yesterday as the Forward Guidance Mark I didn't really go as planned, approaching the 7% threshold for unemployment way too quickly for the BoE's comfort. The following video clips discuss some of the issues from yesterday's announcement. Big debate about whether the new Forward Guidance is more fuzzy than it is forward.read more...»
David Smith's weekly column in the Sunday Times yesterday is worth getting hold of, to study the conundrum around stagnant productivity and rising employment. He uses data from the ONS to look at average weekly real wages, which started falling in 2008 and are still falling now, to consider whether this year will show a turnaround in real incomes.read more...»
Cost benefit analysis, economies of scale, energy economics, regional development, economic growth, competitiveness ... there is a veritable a tidal wave of applied economics in this article from the Guardian on plans for Tidal Lagoon Power.
Here is a resource (in editable word format) that I use when introducing the topic of unemployment - I find it works for students to get a sense of the numbers for employment and unemployment when we get onto the policy issues. The resource has the answers at the back!
Hope this might prove a useful classroom resource!
In this short interview from the Financial Times, John Authers discusses with Roger Bootle, managing director of Capital Economics about the sources of the resurgence in growth in the UK economy. Bootle argues that there is little sign of economic re-balancing, consumption is the main driver of recovery and net exports are subtracting from growth at the moment.
The current account deficit is widening - Bootle find this a deeply depressing shift and hints that the UK economy remains heavily dependent on exporting to weak-growing European markets.read more...»
New data on the UK economy shows another quarter of above trend growth. Here is an updated six chart presentation on the economic cycle that might be useful for teaching macro in the classroom. Download as a powerpoint fileread more...»
The Secretary of State Vince Cable delivers a lecture on the UK economy at the Bank of England on Monday 27th January starting at 6.30pm. I will be there on behalf of Tutor2u and I will post a report on his talk on this blog entry as soon as possible after the talk.
The Rt Hon Dr Vince Cable MP, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills will be talking on ‘The shape of the economic recovery’ on Monday 27th January at the Bank of England Conference Centre. The RES is widening the outreach of its policy lectures by broadcasting the lecture live in HD video and encouraging participation and interactivity through this site.
The hashtag for the event is #reslecture
Here are some news clips on the sharp fall in measured unemployment and a record rise in employment in the UK economy at the end of 2013. Students can find revision notes on unemployment using this linkread more...»
It was no surprise when the latest release of unemployment and employment data for the UK labour market up to the end of 2013 made headline news across the media. There was a dramatic decline in the labour force survey measure of unemployment and news of a record level of employment.
Many teachers will be covering unemployment as part of their AS macro course - I have put together six updated charts into a PowerPoint file for those who want to integrate the data charts into their teaching. Download using the link below:
PowerPoint file on Unemployment
The concept of the’ output gap’ is central to mainstream macroeconomics. It is not merely of academic interest. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has a specific requirement to estimate the output gap, which it defines formally as “the difference between the current level of activity in the economy and the potential level it could sustain while keeping inflation stable”. The output gap is a key consideration for central banks around the world. If output is well below its potential, interest rates should be kept low, to try to stimulate the economy. And a large output gap should keep inflation low. Prices are hard to put up in a depressed economy.read more...»
This report which the Public Accounts Committee published on Friday, entitled Supporting UK exporters overseas, gives a useful piece of background reading, as it marries up AS and A2 level theory, and micro and macro topics. It looks at the combined efforts of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and UK Trade and Industry to help UK firms, particularly small and medium sized businesses, boost their exports and so contribute to UK GDP recovery. The summary of the report on the PAC website could be used by students to consider a couple of questions:
How many examples of government failure can you identify?
Given that the UK does not currently use monetary policy to influence the exchange rate, what mix of government policies might be used in order to meet the target of doubling exports by 2020?
One for the A2 macro students! As 2013 drew to a close, Newsnight assembled a dream team of economists and economic commentators to pick their favourite graph of 2013, the one that they thought told the most compelling story of the underlying health of the UK and world economyread more...»
Peter Marsh, formerly the manufacturing editor of the Financial Times, has let me know of the imminent launch of an unusual and interesting photographic project linked to the world of manufacturing. It's an exhibition of pictures of UK manufacturing operations taken by some of the world's top photographers and which will tour Britain from the end of January to September next year.read more...»
The end of a year is a good time to take stock. For the first time since 2007, prospects for the UK for the forthcoming year look unequivocally good. But looking back, just how bad have the last few years been across the developed world as a whole? And how do they compare with previous recessions in a historical context? To keep you out of suspense, the answer to both these questions is ‘pretty bad’. In one key respect, it has been awful.read more...»
Which of these brands are British?
- Newcastle Brown
- Aston Martin
- Rolls Royce
- Branston's pickle
- Land Rover
- HP sauce
- PG Tips
- John Smiths bitter
- Sarson’s vinegar
- Rowntree Mackintosh
If you didn't quite grasp the importance of agglomeration economies in driving and sustaining growth and wealth creation in cities, then this wonderful piece from Bridget Rosewall will do it I am sure! It highlights the importance of vision and a willingness to take risks in bond-funded infrastructure projects in London (and elsewhere). Bridget Rosewall's new short book is available direct from the publishers - click here for details
With London’s Victorian sewage system struggling to cope, the 25km Thames Tideway tunnel is intended to boost capacity. But the £4.2bn Super Sewer project has run into considerable and vocal opposition. London's main sewers are over 150 years old and built for a city for 2.5 million people. The population of London is now over 8 million and when heavy rainfall arrives, there are frequent and sizeable discharges of raw sewage into the river Thames. 39 million tonnes of untreated sewage flushes into the Thames in a typical year - that’s enough to fill the Royal Albert Hall 450 times. The sewage discharges puts the UK in breach of the EU Urban Wastewater Treatment Directive.
Critics of Thames Water argue that they have under spent on sewage system maintenance over the years despite recording persistently high profits. Thames Water announced £150 million profits in 2012.
Residents around the 21 proposed construction sites have protested about the externalities connected to the project. Other opponents argue that the money would be better spent on cheaper sustainable urban drainage techniques.
Future generations will benefit but today's water users will pay most of the construction cost with higher water bills imminent for a number of years to come. The Thames Water proposes adding £70 to £80 a year indefinitely to the average bill of Londoners to fund the 16-mile sewer from Acton in west London to Abbey Mills in east London. But a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance calculates that the tunnel could be built for between £30 and £35 per household per yearread more...»
The phrase ‘industrial policy’ seems to take us decades back in time. In 1964, a powerful catchphrase of the new Labour Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, was the need for Britain to embrace the ‘white heat of the technological revolution’. Sadly, by the 1970s this vision had deteriorated into a list of institutions, stuffed with dull businessmen and trade unionists, meeting to decide how to prop up yet another failed sector of the UK economy.
But the concept is now back in vogue. Perhaps surprisingly, given the historical experience, the coalition chose to preserve Labour’s Technology Strategy Board (TSB) quango. The TSB has a budget of £400 million to “accelerate UK economic growth by stimulating and supporting business-led innovation”. A key way in which it plans to do this is through the purchasing decisions of the public sector.read more...»
Boris Johnson has got into trouble for his statement that it is "surely relevant to a conversation about equality" that just 2 per cent of “our species” has an IQ over 130. Over the past couple of years, the Occupy movement has made headlines by attacking the top 1 per cent.
The summer 2013 edition of the top American Journal of Economic Perspectives focuses specifically on the “Top 1 Per Cent”. This is written almost exclusively in English rather than maths, and top economists debate a range of intriguing questions.read more...»
Employees in the UK are not being denied their fair share of economic growth, according to research by João Paulo Pessoa and Professor John Van Reenen, director of the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE. Their investigation of claims that wage growth has become ‘decoupled’ from productivity growth finds that decoupling has been overstated and cannot be used to justify redressing the balance between wages and profits.read more...»
This is a one page revision sheet covering some of the key data on the state of the UK economy - I hope it might be useful for students taking their mock exams in macroeconomics. There was also an excellent feature on prospects for the UK here - Is Britain's economy really on the path to prosperity? (Observer, 1st December 2013)read more...»
The cost of renting property in many parts of the UK continues to rise - would rent controls make any difference? Here is an updated Unit 1 economics revision presentation.read more...»
A currently fashionable pessimistic topic is the lifetime prospects of children born into the middle class. Graduate debt, lack of finance to buy homes and job insecurity after they graduate, the list goes on. Alan Milburn, the government’s ‘social mobility tsar’, put the seal of approval on this prevailing angst last month. His Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission pronounced that children from families with above-average incomes are now set to enjoy a worse standard of living as adults than their mothers and fathers.read more...»
This revision presentation highlights the key opportunities and threats faced by firms outside China looking to do business in and with China. It also provides examples of businesses that have succeeded in China and those that have struggled!
A fully editable and printable version of this presentation is included in our AQA BUSS4 2014 Toolkit on China which is being published on 8 November 2013.read more...»
UK immigrants who arrived since 2000 are less likely to receive benefits and less likely to live in social housing than UK natives. What’s more, over the decade from 2001 to 2011, they made a considerable positive net contribution to the UK’s fiscal system, and thus helped to relieve the fiscal burden on UK-born workers.
The positive contribution is particularly evident for UK immigrants from the European Economic Area (EEA – the European Union plus three small neighbours): they contributed about 34% more in taxes than they received in benefits over the period 2001-11.
These are the central findings of a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal consequences of immigration to the UK, published today by the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM) at University College London.read more...»
The Confederation of British Industry has today launched a report called Our Global Future: The Business Vision for a Reformed EU - The report calls for further EU reform not least the completion of the single market in particular in services and the new internet economy. They argue for more free trade deals with other countries and regions.
The report produces estimates – based on past academic studies – that EU membership adds £62bn-£78bn a year to UK gross domestic product, equal to the combined economies of northeast England and Northern Ireland. That works out at £3,000 per household and £1,225 per individual. The fact sheets from the report can be found hereread more...»
The recovery in the British economy is now firmly established. Output in the services sector, the largest part of the economy, is above the previous peak level prior to the crash in 2008. There is a widespread myth that the recovery is fuelled by debt-financed personal spending. Yet since the trough of the recession in 2009 the economy as a whole has grown faster than spending by consumers.read more...»
BBC Newsnight explores the latest UK growth data and holds a discussion about the durability and nature of the upturn in economic fortunes. Excellent background for evaluating this crucial stage of the cycle.read more...»
The nature of A2 economics specifications is that they lag interesting and important developments in the subject much of which are directly relevant to what students are taught in the classroom. The role of complexity in understanding how and why countries grow is one such example and I have blogged before about the work of Cesar Hidalgo and Richard Hausmann through the Observatory of Economic Complexity - see "Teaching Trade in a Different Way"
It is a joy to find the Financial Times covering some of their ideas in a brace of short videos as part of the John Authers Daily Note. You can always find these clips on the FT's You Tube Channel and I strongly recommend this for ambitious and enthusiastic students.read more...»
Here is a set of ten charts on aspects of the UK economic cycle and growth story for recent years - designed as a possible teaching / handout resource for teachers on an AS macro courseread more...»
Key changes in the labour market are important in understanding developments in the British economy. Here is a selection of ten updated charts on unemployment designed as a teaching resource for colleagues covering the Unit 2 macro course. Also available for download as a pdf file.read more...»
If you are teaching inflation as part of the AS macro course, here are ten charts that focus on recent changes in the consumer price index and related inflation measures. Useful perhaps as handouts for class discussion and annotation. You can download the charts as a pdf file.read more...»
A huge reminder about the shifts in economic power arrived with the news about the development of Hinkley C nuclear power station.read more...»
The market for retail gas supplies is mired in controversy and threats of direct government intervention to freeze prices should a new Labour government be elected in 2015. This week we have seen a classic example of the type of price leadership we expect to see in an oligopoly.
Young adults in England have scored almost the lowest result in the developed world in international literacy and numeracy tests. A study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows how England's 16 to 24 year olds are falling behind their Asian and European counterparts. England is 22nd for literacy and 21st for numeracy out of 24 countries.
New Labour and the educational establishment harangued us for years about the stupendous success of the system, as record numbers of both passes and A-grades in GCSE and A-levels were registered year after year. The OECD study, by no means the first of its kind, confirms what many suspected. Grade inflation was rampant, and the statistics had as much meaning as the pronouncements about production levels made in the Soviet Union. Actually, that is unfair. When the Soviet Union said 10 million boots had been produced, they really had been. They might have been poor quality and all left-footed, but the boots did exist. It now turns out that many people with GCSE passes can barely read and are virtually unable to add up.read more...»
Just as I am in the midst of teaching my AS students about macroeconomic indicators, and focusing on inflation and unemployment, up pops this piece by Linda Yueh about the latest data on those two indicators this week, and the Misery Index.read more...»
Inequality has been rising for 30 years. The gap between rich and poor is the widest since the second world war. If current trends continue, we will have reached Victorian levels of inequality in 20 yearsread more...»
The cost of living will be a key battleground in the next election and the main political parties seem to be coming up with offers covering utility bills, rail fares, banking charges and the cost of housing as a way of limiting increases in the living costs of "hard-working" families! One should always take promises from politicians with a huge pinch of salt - intervention to freeze bills is fraught with risks and unintended consequences. This Channel 4 news clip looks at the issue.read more...»
Changes to key interest rates by central banks have a significant impact on economic activity during periods when the economy is expanding. Unfortunately, they seem to have virtually no effect during recessions – the time when the stimulus of monetary policy is most needed.
These are the central findings of research by Professor Silvana Tenreyro and Gregory Thwaites, published by the new Centre for Macroeconomics at the London School of Economics.read more...»
Over 400,000 new cars were registered in the UK last month, the highest number for five and a half years. And while this increase of 12% over sales in September 2012 still cannot compare with Mercedes 21% rise in sales in China, it must surely be a sign of recovery in the UK economy.read more...»
A revision presentation on aspects of the links between investment and economic growth. Plus some slides on the causes of the so-called Middle Income Trapread more...»