This short streamed revision presentation looks at aspects of the EU including exam style question on the economic effects of labour migrationread more...»
Membership of the European Union (EU) has had a big positive effect on average incomes in all but one of its member countries. That is the central finding of research by Nauro Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli and Luigi Moretti, to be presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2014 annual conference. They also find that the more financially developed countries have grown significantly faster after joining the EU.read more...»
The economics team at Deutche Bank have produced this infographic on aspects of the EU single market and it might be useful for A2 students wanting extra background on the EU economyread more...»
On 31 January 1990, a great event took place in Pushkin Square, Moscow. A branch of MacDonald’s was opened. The same excitement was generated in Kiev on 24 May 1997, when the MacDonald’s franchise was extended to the Ukraine. The American author Thomas Friedman wrote in 1999 that no two countries with such a franchise had ever gone to war with each other. It is a striking and imaginative image, which rapidly spread to become part of the received wisdom of the chattering classes. If economic prosperity could become spread more widely across the world, liberalism and tolerance would follow.read more...»
The Atlas of Economic Complexity is a new book (perfect for the coffee table) from Richard Hausmann and Cesar Hidalgo. It maps out the degree of complexity of individual economies around the world and provides a hugely visual and interesting insight into the importance of knowledge in shaping the future prosperity of countries in the global economy. I have put together a 10 question quiz on some of their key results - a useful activity I hope for students interested in the commodity composition of trade of developed and developing countries. Have a go!read more...»
In the 1990s and early 2000s, Germany was seen by many as the new ‘Sick Man of Europe’. Between 1991 and 2005, GDP growth averaged only 1.2 per cent a year, compared to 3.3 per cent in the UK. Since then, the German economy has revived dramatically. The recovery in the German cluster of economies from the financial crisis has been as strong as in the United States, with the previous peak level of output being regained in 2011. Germany itself experienced virtually no increase in unemployment in 2008 and 2009, its exports are at record levels, and even the crisis in the Euro area has not prevented expansion in both output and employment.read more...»
Gains from international trade, the history of European economic integration, fiscal and monetary policy, the launch of the €uro and the 2008 financial crisis are all clearly animated and explained in this superb video. In just over 12 minutes it explains the problems of the €urozone and the threats and challenges it still faces. Definitely one to watch for the closing stages of an A2 macro course.read more...»
Norway has for many years recorded an enviable macroeconomic performance. It regularly tops the international rankings for the Human Development Index (HDI) and it has one of the highest figures for GNI per capita (PPP) among developed nations. It records huge current account surpluses in excess of 10% of GDP each year and strong growth and surging revenues from oil and gas production have given the Norwegian government a fiscal position that many other countries would die for! Unemployment is the lowest of any European country.
That said there are some signs that the economy is suffering from an over-dependence on oil and gas - it is at risk of the Dutch Disease?
The Dutch Disease is the idea that economic growth from exploiting and exporting natural resources can crowd out investment in other sectors, in part due to a strengthening exchange rate which causes a sharp rise in relative unit labour costs. High wages are also seen as a factor behind a trend decline in the average hours worked and a rise in the drop-out rate from high school education.
Manufacturing wages in Norway have climbed by more than 150 per cent since 1997 against just 50 per cent in the US and Germany They are now 60-70 per cent higher than the weighted average of Norway’s trading partners, meaning “that for every hour worked here we need to be 60 per cent more productive”. (FT, 7 Feb 2014)read more...»
Celebrations in Ireland as the credit ratings agencies no longer regard Irish government debt as ‘junk’, according to the BBC. What does this mean and why does it matter? Here are some bond market reminders and links, helping to explain how governments borrow, and at what cost.read more...»
Much has been made of Latvia's internal devaluation, so much so that it has featured in OCR's Global Economy pre release. Most commentators have reacted negatively to the effect of Latvia's internal devaluation; here's why:read more...»
Here are some notes taken from a talk given by Peter Coy, Economics Editor for Bloomberg Businessweek, at the Marshall Society Economics Conference in Cambridge in January 2015read more...»
Inside Story from Al Jazeerah considers whether the worst is now over for some of the cluster of Euro Area countries who have received huge bail-outs accompanied by fiscal austerity measures. The Spanish economy seems to be moving tentatively towards a stronger rebound despite persistently high mass unemployment.read more...»
Successful innovation is a driving dynamic of competitive businesses and countries. Bloomberg Rankings recently examined 215 countries and sovereign regions to determine their innovation quotient. They have narrowed this down to thirty countries and the results are available through this Bloomberg slideshow. Which nation comes first?read more...»
On the 1st January 2014, Latvia became the 18th country to enter the single currency Euro area, joining Estonia who adopted the Euro four years ago. How will it affect the economy? Are the forecast benefits greater than the costs and risks? Here are some resources on the issue:read more...»
The coming year looks like it will be a good one. At the start of each of the past five years, the economic scales have been tilted down, and the challenge has been to look for factors which might have tipped them back up. This year, the balance is reversed. The onus lies with the pessimists to prove their case. Not that there are any shortages on this score. For example, King Canute of Twickenham, aka Vince Cable, has solemnly commanded that house prices must stop rising, for fear of a new bubble.read more...»
Volume car production has been surging in recent years in many Eastern European countries - this FT news video provides some of the background and offers some revealing insights into the complex sources of competitive advantage in a key industrial sector.
The vehicles that roll off the production line at the Czech company's state-of-the-art car plant near Prague now outstrip many western rivals not only on cost but on reliability and finish too.read more...»
There has been huge recent coverage of the impending relaxation of migrant controls for workers from Romania and Bulgaria - two countries that joined the EU single market in 2007. Here are some different views on the issue.
The World Bank has recently put two short You Tube clips on their channel focusing on the importance of economies of scale, labour mobility and competitive cities as drivers of growth and development in Romania and Bulgaria. They are both worth a look as useful short revision clips for economists and geographers.read more...»
The June 2014 F585 case study focuses in part on Latvia's decision to join the Euro - this happens on 1st January 2014. One of Latvia's Baltic State neighbours Lithuanian is also hoping to join the single currency bloc in January 2015. Lithuania's finance minister explains to Richard Milne the Financial Times Nordic and Baltic correspondent, why the Baltic country is aiming for the euro.read more...»
The euro should either be dismantled in an orderly way or the leading members should do what is necessary to make it growth- and employment-friendly as fast as possible. That is the central message of Nobel laureate Professor Sir Christopher Pissarides, when he delivers his inaugural lecture as the first Regius Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics.
Professor Pissarides was once a passionate believer in the benefits of European monetary union. He now thinks that either the euro should be dismantled or the direction of economic policy dramatically reversed so as to promote growth and jobs and avoid creating a lost generation of educated young people.
‘We will get nowhere plodding along with the current line of ad hoc decision-making and inconsistent debt-relief policies’, he will say. ‘The policies pursued now to steady the euro are costing Europe jobs and they are creating a lost generation of educated young people. This is not what the founding fathers promised.’
The co-recipient of the 2010 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences will outline what needs to be done to bring Europe back to life:read more...»
Here is a revision presentation on the economics of producer and consumer subsidies as forms of government intervention in markets. There are a number of up to date examples highlighted together with an evaluation of the benefits and costs of subsidy payments. This is designed as a revision aid for unit 1 students taking their microeconomics papers.read more...»
It isn’t supposed to be like this. The 'upside' of the recession and financial crisis was a steep depreciation in the value of sterling. That should have made our exports cheaper and imports dearer, thereby helping the UK to close its huge current account deficit. But as the graph above shows, it just hasn’t happened.read more...»
The numbers are breath-taking and they reflect the growing scale and prominence of Gulf air carriers in the international aviation market. Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways together have just ordered over 200 of new Boeing 777X aircraft, a more fuel-efficient version of the 777 jumbo. Here we have the monopsony power of major buyers coming face to face with the duopolistic market power of the dominant aircraft manufacturers - US plane maker Boeing, and European rival Airbus.
Check out our revision notes on monopsony power using the link belowread more...»
Long term youth unemployment is a persistent structural problem for the British economy - this BBC news article provides a ray of hope as Nestle announces extra investment in their training / apprenticeships schemes for younger workers. A more pro-active approach from larger businesses would be welcome - offering paid experience to help break the catch-22 of no job without experience, no experience without a job. Nearly one million young people (16-24) are unemployed in the UK, while youth unemployment in Ireland is 28 per cent with more than 65,000 young people out of work.read more...»
UK immigrants who arrived since 2000 are less likely to receive benefits and less likely to live in social housing than UK natives. What’s more, over the decade from 2001 to 2011, they made a considerable positive net contribution to the UK’s fiscal system, and thus helped to relieve the fiscal burden on UK-born workers.
The positive contribution is particularly evident for UK immigrants from the European Economic Area (EEA – the European Union plus three small neighbours): they contributed about 34% more in taxes than they received in benefits over the period 2001-11.
These are the central findings of a comprehensive analysis of the fiscal consequences of immigration to the UK, published today by the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM) at University College London.read more...»
The Confederation of British Industry has today launched a report called Our Global Future: The Business Vision for a Reformed EU - The report calls for further EU reform not least the completion of the single market in particular in services and the new internet economy. They argue for more free trade deals with other countries and regions.
The report produces estimates – based on past academic studies – that EU membership adds £62bn-£78bn a year to UK gross domestic product, equal to the combined economies of northeast England and Northern Ireland. That works out at £3,000 per household and £1,225 per individual. The fact sheets from the report can be found hereread more...»
In a recent assignment, A2 students were asked to write a 500 word profile on each of two development economists of their choice and to capture their key ideas and connect to one or more current issues in development. I will be adding some of their responses to the economics blog. Here Ben Evans focuses on the work of Daron Acemogluread more...»
A revision presentation on aspects of the links between investment and economic growth. Plus some slides on the causes of the so-called Middle Income Trapread more...»
Here at Tutor2u we are really looking forward to the launch of a new programme on BBC - Talking Business with Linda Yueh. Linda has spoken at several of our Tutor2u events in recent years and her ability to communicate important and often complex ideas to a wider public has been clearly evident in her presentations. This is a programme well worth tuning into and sharing with your students. Click here for details. See also: China's Transformation - The Long View (Linda Yueh at the Tutor2u Conference)
Economics student Anthony Beaumont writes on the policies that might sustain an improvement in the Croatian economy as it settles into being the 28th member nation of the EU single marketread more...»
The rate of unemployment in Greece has reached a record of just under 28% of the labour force. To put this into context, in 2008 just before the Global Financial Crisis engulfed much of the EU economy in recession, Greek unemployment was 7.8% (equivalent to where the UK jobless rate is today). Youth unemployment is staggeringly high - the latest figures show that 58.8% of people under the age of 25 are out of work.
There are some tentative signs that the Greek economy may be at a turning point from the trough of a deep and persistent depression. After six years of full-blown recession some macro indicators suggest that confidence is seeping back for businesses and consumers and that the government debt crisis might ease a little. Tourism, which accounts for about a fifth of Greece's economic output and one in five jobs is having a strong year - tourism exports represent an injection in the Greek economy's circular flow of income and spending. Chinese tourists seem to be coming to Greece in much greater numbers!
But Greece has suffered gravely over the last few years - the level of real GDP is 25% lower than it was before the crisis and some economists have started to refer to Greece as a sub-merging economy whose trend growth rate is now negative.read more...»
With a deep recession and persistently high rates of unemployment among younger people. fears are growing about a brain drain in Portugal as highly qualified university graduates leave the country in search of a better life. Peter Wise, Financial Times Lisbon correspondent, reports on what the trend means for the troubled Portuguese economy. Losing "the best of a generation" poses important long-term threats to the competitiveness of the Portuguese economy. Some are moving to Angola and Brazil, the UK has also attracted skilled workers in health care, banking and IT.read more...»
Tomorrow the UK will see its newest High Street bank open 631 branches. However, this new bank will be called the TSB (Trustee Savings Bank) which is a brand that was first created over 200 years ago. The creation of the bank comes from EU directives to split up the Lloyds TSB group and create greater competition in the banking market and counteract any advantage Lloyds TSB might have from being Government-owned.
This link will take you to a short Powerpoint stimulus presentation to be used in class. The presentation gives a brief explanation of the TSB story and has links to a few interesting video clips as well as the branch finder web page so that you can show your students where their nearest TSB is located.
Britain's exports of whisky have been growing strongly in recent years helped by a lower pound and fast-rising demand from whisky drinkers in emerging markets. Whisky exports set to rise to £4.5bn by 2017 even though sales to traditionally strong markets in the European Union have stalled because of persistent recession in countries such as Spain, Portugal and Italy. This Channel 4 news report looks at the experiences of two whisky producers - one a small-scale manufacturer and the other the giant Diageo to consider prospects for UK exports as a way of strengthening the recovery,read more...»
Here is a superb five minute news video from the Financial Times that could serve as an excellent introduction to both micro and macroeconomics. Helped by EU structural funds, Portugal has invested huge sums in their motorway network; indeed Portugal has four times more motorway road space per head of population than the UK. However beset by persistent recession and the lagged effects of high fuel prices, many of these gleaming new roads are virtually empty - a waste a scarce economic resources. Road traffic has fallen more in Portugal than in any other European country in the past 15 months. Peter Wise, Lisbon Correspondent, reports on why empty roads provide a revealing insight into the depth of the country's recession.read more...»
Potential defaults in the Euro zone have been in the news again. In Portugal, the ruling coalition parties and the main opposition Socialists have been unable to agree on a European Union-led bailout plan after days of talks. Yields on the country’s 10 year bonds have approached 7 per cent, compared to the 1.5 per cent in Germany. There has been some improvement this week on the news that an early general election has been avoided, but yields still remain over 6 per cent.read more...»
John Kay looks at the lack of evidence for the effect of quantitative easing as a driver for economic growth. He is excellent on some of paradoxes of the impact of QE on the macroeconomy of countries where it has been tried.
The main effect of QE according to Kay is to boost asset prices and the one certain consequence of this is that those who have assets - such as homeowners and stocks and shares - will benefit.
We strongly recommend that ambitious students take a look at some of the other articles written by John Kay - check out his web site by clicking this linkread more...»
Cambridge economist Mike Kitson argues here that the Euro Zone will eventually collapse after a number of difficult years. As pressure again mounts in the Eurozone leading Cambridge economist Michael Kitson says the euro might 'stagger on' for a few more years but eventually it will disintegrate. Policy makers have been papering over the cracks in the Eurozone and causing major problems for many member countries which are trapped by tight fiscal rulesread more...»
Whilst the UK appears to remain the most Eurosceptic of the EU member states, other countries are lining up to join the exclusive club we're so keen to distance ourselves from. I suppose it is like having a season ticket to watch Manchester United when you are a Manchester City fan.
Croatia is the latest member to join the EU despite all of the recent Economic problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus, and joins the party just as the collective is about to make a huge trade agreement with the USA.
As an interesting lesson-starter (this activity will last about 10 minutes), are your students able to identify the location of all 28 member states if they are presented with a 'blank' map of Europe. The Balkan and Baltic states pose the greatest challenge!
The Powerpoint file accessed below poses that question. Teachers can run the show and then reveal the 28 countries on their screens or give out the student worksheets (with corresponding map) before going through the correct answers. Note - there are two possible worksheets - the first asks students to apply a number to the given list of the 28 states and the second is blank and asks students to fill in the names of the 28 states in the 'map' order (and is therefore a little more challenging).
Click on this link to access the file. This link will take you to a Google Drive post where you can then download the file to your own computer.
The struggle to achieve meaningful and significant reform of Europe's controversial and hugely expensive farm support system will probably go on for many years. The latest attempt at changing the basis for payments made by the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) appears to have fallen foul of intensive lobbying by farm groups in some of Europe's largest and wealthiest countries.
In this BBC news video Roger Harribin reports on the watering down of reform proposals. The CAP began in 1962 as a way to increase food production. It costs around $75bn (£48.7bn) per year in subsidies to farmers, funded by taxpayers. The Commission wants farmers to earn some of their subsidies, for example by protecting the environment, but farm ministers are fighting back. The subsidies available to some of the largest farm businesses can top Euro 1 million each year and they seem set to stay.read more...»
Hundreds of millions of people around the world are escaping poverty and becoming middle class. The explosion of new consumers in China, India and other economic powerhouses is changing the global balance of power. The BBC website has a new series on exploring the effects of this shift in global economic power and influence - click here for further research and watch the video below
SPOTTING and identifying new species is always exciting. And the last couple of years has seen the emergence of a new type of economic commentator, the recovery denier. Paul Krugman, the Nobel prize-winning economist, wrote a piece at the end of last year in which he compared the current situation to that of the 1930s. On Newsnight recently, another Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz poured scorn on my assertion that the US economy has recovered.
But what does the data tell us? In the 1930s, output in America fell by nearly 30 per cent from its 1929 peak. This time, the fall was only 3 per cent, and the level of output is now higher than it was below the crash. The latest US labour market figures show continued growth in employment. Over 5m net new jobs have been created over the past three years, all of which have been in the private sector. Unemployment has just fallen to a four year low.
The scale of the new London Gateway Super deepwater Port is truly stunning and its importance to the economy as a trading nation is hard to underestimate - Britain will have a new world class hub port in a key location impacting on many trades and services in and around the South East and beyond. It has taken 10 years to establish and build this huge new infrastructure project, building eventually started in 2008.
Behind the port sits Europe's largest logistics park connected to the South east by road and rail.
This Financial Times news video looks at the background to the project - it is a good example to consider of the macroeconomic consequences of the investment. What price a new Thames Estuary airport (supported by Boris Johnson) to amplify the transformative impact in the years ahead?
Update: BBC news (November 2013) - click hereread more...»
Here are some links to resources covering the accession of Croatia to the European Union as the country becomes the 28th member nation of the EU Single Market. This BBC news article tracks Croatia's progress from isolation to full membership of the EU. For a fact sheet on Croatia this handout from Eurostat looks pitch perfect! We have also produced a one-page case study factsheet on Croatia for students and teachers - Croatia_Joins_EU.pdfread more...»
The pricing of carbon emissions needs to be sensitive to both long-run climate outcomes and short-term concerns about the macroeconomy. Research by Reyer Gerlagh and Matti Liski reconciles these two timeframes and comes up with optimal prices of between €20 and €130 per ton of carbon dioxide.
An updated version of my EU economy study companion is being researched and written at the moment - but in case this might be useful as a revision resource, here is a stream version of the January 2012 document.read more...»
The UK's membership of the EU is among the hottest of topics at the moment. With the UKIP party doing so well in recent elections and various senior political figures starting to show their real views on UK membership of the EU club even Barrack Obama was giving his opinions yesterday. This doesn't mean that the topic is any more likely to turn up on macro-economic exam papers over the next few weeks at AS and A2 (the OCR AS paper has already been and gone! Hope it went well) - the papers will have been written before the more recent votes.
However, the economic question about the UK's membership has been an important topic for quite a while and so it is worth having a look again just in case it rears its multi-lingual head. Added to that, students of economics will be in an ideal situation over the next few years to be able to make an informed decision in any referendum, based upon having some of the facts and figures and having developed their outstanding evaluative skills on the matter!
With this in mind, follow this link to find a short (10 minute) teaching resource that asks that very simple question - What are the economic arguments for and against remaining in the European Union? The Powerpoint file has a 4 minute timer to give students the chance to think about the answer and then a nice little graphic illustrating some possible answers that they could use in an exam. The BBC have also produced a succinct balanced webpage on a similar question.
The distinguished American academic economists, Carmen Reinhardt and Ken Rogoff, have been very much in the news. Their 2009 book, This Time is Different, was a comprehensive examination of financial crises over the past 800 years. The work received many plaudits and awards. They suggested that when the ratio of public debt to GDP in a country rose above the 90-100 per cent range, the chances of a financial crisis increased sharply. And the consequence was that economic growth in the country would be adversely affected.
The European Union's carbon emissions trading scheme is under huge pressure at the moment and there are many who believe that the market-based system of carbon pricing has effectively collapsed.
- There is a fundamental over-supply of carbon permits in the market - on some estimates, an excess of supply of over 840 million permits (one permit = one tonne of CO2)
- This has caused a sharp fall in the market price of carbon to below Euro 5 per tonne
- At such low prices there is an incentive to use coal rather than cleaner natural gas for electricity generation
- Latest figures show that greenhouse gas output in Europe fell in 2012 by 1.4% - but this is largely the result of very weak economic growth in the EU
(Source: The Economist) - click here
Fantastic interactive website here lets you check out migration flows both inward and outward from any country you care to look at.