Global downturn leave costly empty vessels

The global shipping industry is associated with huge internal economies of scale and where demand is closely tied to the fortunes of industries such as iron ore, oil and coal but also to the world economic cycle. Things are looking grim for shipping operators who have bet hundreds of millions of dollars on expanding a fleet for which there is now substantially less demand.

 

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Economies of Scale - Giant Wind Farms

This BBC article on the granting of permission for a giant wind farm off the coast of North Wales might be a good example of the importance of economies of scale in making renewable sources of energy more cost efficient. And heading to the web site of the Gwynt y Môr Offshore Wind Farm accesses some resources on the potential costs and benefits of a scheme that might provide electricity for up to 500,000 homes. If construction goes to plan, the wind farm will start to produce power from 2012.

Who are the Bank of England’s spies on the ground?

The Bank of England has a network of Regional Agents operating across the length and breadth of the UK. Think of the Regional Agents as a form of intelligence network designed to give the Bank of England a feel for what is really happening on the ground.

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Hamish McRae on the return of credit rationing

One of our most gifted business and financial communicators peers beyond the murky uncertainty of recent days to consider a world where those banks who survive the crisis are much more circumspect about how much they are prepared to lend.

“So people who are deemed bad risks, such as the self-employed and people in flashy professions, will find it harder to get a mortgage. Have a bad credit record and that will be a shut-out. First-time buyers will have to have saved for a 10 per cent deposit, or more. Small companies will find it more difficult to raise capital. Start-ups will find it harder to get going. Big companies, even profitable ones, will have to pare back their investment plans and cut their staff levels. Everything will slow down as a result.”

This is not a return to the dark ages although the prospects of a wholesale nationalisation of the bad debts of the banking system cannot totally be ruled out. But a world where credit is both harder to obtain and more expensive will come as a shock to the millions of consumers weaned on easy lending with minimum checks and balances applied.  The danger is not that consumers have to become more prudent in their spending and borrowing habits, rather that small and medium sized businesses will have their ambitions curtailed by a new credit squeeze. There are already signs of a sharp downturn in planned investment spending.

Some Good Radio Programmes

Last week’s Analysis was on sport and considered whether we should invest so much in sport. Our success in the Olympics suggests that the investment has paid off in one way at least. But is investment in the 2012 London Olympics worthwhile? Listen by clicking on this link

On the same evening, Investigation looked at the reasons for high oil prices. Listen to this here

Our Food, Our Future is a short series looking at food production and prices. Some of the recent programmes can be found on the website and there is a useful slide show here:

BBC radio 4 analysis has an archive of past programmes.

 

Cross elasticity: Demand for new aircraft

Over twenty airlines have gone bust since the price of aviation fuel started to climb and the turbulence in the global aviation market is likely to lead to a fall in demand for new aircraft according to a report in today’s Times.

 

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Manufacturing gets a boost from UK government investment

British manufacturing industry perennially appears to move from one recessionary period to another. But although the sector as a whole has shrunk as a share of GDP and employment, we still have some world class manufacturing businesses out there often engaged in high-knowledge and high-value production - competing on quality and craftsmanship rather than mass volume. The decision this week by the UK government to build two new huge aircraft carriers is an important shot in the arm for a number of UK manufacturing firms and this BBC report says that seven UK-based firms have won contracts totalling £91.5m to build parts for the new carriers.

Corus, based in Scunthorpe, will get £65m to provide steel whilst five other English firms, in Dorset, Greater Manchester, Surrey, Suffolk and Lancashire, will build products ranging from control towers to landing aids. Corus ofcourse is now owned by the Indian conglomerate Tata!

But a good example of how government capital spending can have potentially large multiplier effects if the initial contracts are given to domestic businesses.

The rest of the BBC article is here

Businesses hold the key to the next stage of the cycle

These are turbluent times for the economy - but the macroeconomic numbers of output, investment, jobs and pay are simply the aggegate of many thousands of decisions taken by individual businesses across the length nd breadth of the economy. How the UK economy emerges in the current downturn will depend crucially on the strategies adopted by the busines sector. It is a huge challenge - to make money and protect margins in a time when cost pressures are enormous, when demand might be slipping away and productivity growth is slowing down as capacity utilisation drops.

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