Unit 2 Macro: Cyclical and Structural Economic Issues Facing the UK
Our focus in an AS macro revision session was on the difference between cyclical issues and events and the wider / deeper structural problems and issues facing the UK economy at this fascinating time. Key macro policy decisions affect the path of an economy out of recession, but are these the same policies that will address the supply-side constraints and weaknesses that hold back growth, development and contribute to growing inequality?
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Evaluation on Supply-Side Policies
Lots of students will be revising the economics of supply-side policies this week with their AS macro paper coming into view. There are different interpretations of what constitutes a supply-side policy measure. I like to label SSP (supply-side policy) to any policy or group of measures where emphasis is given to improving the working of markets, raising factor efficiency, improving the quantity and quality of labour and in lifting the capacity and competitiveness of an economy in a constantly-changing international environment.
Many supply side policies focus on improving incentives and outcomes in the labour market, others are geared towards bettering the performance of markets for goods and services, All of them centre on helping to sustain non-inflationary growth, improve trade performance, lift living standards and create new and fulfilling jobs opportunities.
This revision blog looks in particular at some evaluation points on supply-side approaches:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Human Development Index (HDI)
The Human Development Index (HDI) forms part of the annual human development report and is a composite measure of economic and social welfare that has three main components. At its most basic it focuses on longevity, basic education and minimal income and progress made by countries in improving these three outcomes. The inclusion of education and health indicators is a sign of successful government policies in providing access to important merit goods such as health care, sanitation and education. World Human Development Map
1. Knowledge: First an educational component made up of two statistics – mean years of schooling and expected years of schooling
2. Long and healthy life: Second a life expectancy component is calculated using a minimum value for life expectancy of 25 years and maximum value of 85 years
3. A decent standard of living: The final element is gross national income (GNI) per capita adjusted to purchasing power parity standard (PPP)
“Human development is the expansion of people’s freedom to live long, healthy and creative lives; to advance other goals they have reason to value; and to engage actively in shaping development equitably and sustainably on a shared planet. People are both the beneficiaries and the drivers of human development, as individuals and in groups” Source: HDR Report, November 2010
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Eurozone Crisis - Lessons Learnt
Last week I attended a very interesting lecture at the LSE on the Eurozone crisis, given by Leszek Balcerowicz, a Polish economist who is former chairman of the National Bank of Poland and Deputy Prime Minister.
The following blog outlines his thoughts, but also includes useful links to articles to read.
Using the crisis as a case study will hugely benefit A2 students as it encompasses many of the topics covered in the syllabus.
Unit 4 Macro: African Human Development Report 2012
May 15th 2012 marks the day when the African Human Development Report 2012 is published. This will no doubt become a key reference point for students and teachers who are passionate about their development economics.
“Sub-Saharan Africa cannot sustain its present economic resurgence unless it eliminates the hunger that affects nearly a quarter of its people, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) argues. More than one in four Africans - close to 218 million people - is undernourished, African governments spend between 5-10% of their budgets on agriculture, well below the 20% average that Asian governments devoted to the sector during the green revolution there.”
Resources:
African Human Development Report 2012
Guardian: Sub-Saharan Africa can only grow if it solves hunger crisis – UNDP
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Economic Cycle Glossary
A short glossary of key terms connected to the economic cycle
read more...»Prospects for the UK economy, in brief
The NIESR has published its latest ‘Prospects for the UK economy’ this morning - this link given is to the one-page press release. This clear document gives some stark headlines from their predictions: they consider the persistent weakness in the economy to be unprecedented, they continue to expect that CPI will fall below target by the end of the year, and they believe that unemployment will rise to 9% and stay there for some years, doing permanent damage to the supply side of the UK economy. They estimate that a 1 per cent of GDP increase in government investment this year would boost GDP by around 0.7 per cent, and would provide a boost to the short-run lack of aggregate demand. They do predict a return to growth in 2013, with some above-average growth figures for 2014, which may return the economy to its size of 2008. For the sake of the students sitting their AS and A levels in the next few weeks, let us hope that they are right.
Macro Revision: Putting Things in Context
I always ask of my students that they try to put policy issues and decisions into context. The effective use of context - either in a domestic or external setting or using recent history as a guide can greatly improve evaluation marks in exam essays. Our aim in a revision session today was to build some of that context with respect to some of the key issues facing the UK economy.
A starting point was the short and medium-term impact of the recession and how this is shaping the strength and pattern of recovery as we head through 2011 and into 2012. As befits an open economy heavily integrated into the European and global economic and financial system, many key recent developments on growth, jobs, inflation and trade are impacted by external demand and supply-side shocks and headwinds.
read more...»Tullow Oil and African Development
Yesterday I spent a fascinating evening in the company of Aidan Heavey, Founder and CEO of Tullow Oil plc, Africa’s leading independent oil exploration business and the top performer among FTSE-100 listed businesses on the UK stock exchange. It has approximately 100 production and exploration licenses in 22 countries.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: African Aid - Helpful or Harmful?
This highly interactive programme on Al Jazeerah a few days ago focused on the impact of foreign aid on the African economy. It runs for 35 minutes but there is plenty of interesting debate and many comments flying in on the twitter feeds. Plenty of discussion that might inform a revision session on the future for the African economy and the debate over the effectiveness of aid programmes.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Heathow’s Capacity and Connectivity Crunch
The capacity and efficiency of our transport infrastructure has a huge bearing on the supply-side potential of the economy and in this Channel 4 news video, the CEO of British Airports Authority argues that Heathrow is now full to bursting. The Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition manifesto in 2010 ruled out a third runway at Heathrow - to the relief of those (including me) who live under Heathrow flight paths. But without much needed investmnt in air transport, there are fears that UK business will suffer and the economy will become less attractive to inward investment.
According to BAA (owned by Spanish infrastructure company Ferrovial), 77,000 people are employed inside the airport’s perimeter, with a further 59,000 jobs supported across London. In a recent research report commissioned by BAA and produced by Oxford Economics, a failure to support Heathrow over the next ten years could cost 78,800 jobs from tourism, 55,300 jobs from foreign investment and 7,300 jobs from exports to emerging markets – 141,400 jobs in total
By 2021 lost GDP could total £8.5 billion a year – £3.6 billion from tourism, £4.5 billion from foreign investment and £410 million from exports.
Unit 3 Micro: The Third Industrial Revolution
This is well worth watching! It is an 8 minute discussion from the Economist which examines what is being called “The Third Industrial Revolution” - based around the digitisation of manufacturing processes. Concepts such as 3d printing and advanced robotics are discussed, as are concepts such as competitiveness, productivity and product personalisation. One possible consequence of these changes might be that high quality manufacturing may begin to move back from lower-wage economies such as China and back to economies like the USA.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Brazilian Growth and Sustainability
A short BBC news video here on rapid growth and development in the Brazilian city of Manaus, on the banks of the Amazon river. A new bridge across the world’s biggest river and a healthy manufacturing sector are providing many new jobs. But what of the ecological challenges and threats that this creates?
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Globalisation and the Growth of Ports
Ports are a key part of the critical infrastructure of a country engaged in trade with the rest of the world. This BBC news video looks at the rapid expansion of container ports in the Gulf - facilities that offer a vital link between Europe to the west and China and India to the east.
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Productivity Improvements in China
Productivity is a measure of the efficiency with which a country combines capital and labour to produce more with the same level of factor inputs. We commonly focus on labour productivity measured by output per person employed or output per person hour.
A better measure of underlying productivity growth is total factor productivity which takes into account changes in the amount of capital available for each worker to use and also changes in the size of the labour force.
To give a simple numerical example, if the size of the capital stock grows by 3% and the employed workforce expands by 2% and output (GDP) increases by 8%, then total factor productivity has increased by 3%.
China has achieved impressive gains in productivity in recent years. Some of this is undoubtedly the huge spending on capital investment which has grown to nearly 50% of China’s GDP. The labour force has also grown although this is scheduled to level off and then decline in the years ahead.
What has driven improvements in Chinese total factor productivity?
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Gross National Happiness in Bhutan
On Monday 2nd April 2012 a landmark resolution (number 65) is before the United Nations General Assembly. Bhutan has a population under 800,000, the average income is about $110 per month - low enough for the vast majority of people in Bhutan not to have to pay taxes. The fledgling Bhutanese constitution requires that at least 60% of the country remains under forest cover forever and its stated policy is to be 100% organic in its agricultural production. Major progress has been made in achieving rising per capita incomes, reduced infant mortality, higher life expectancy and a rising percentage of females in education.
Resolution 65 states that “happiness is a fundamental human goal and universal aspiration; that GDP by its nature does not reflect that goal; that unsustainable patterns of production and consumption impede sustainable development; and that more inclusive, equitable and balanced approach is needed to promote sustainability, eradicate poverty and enhance well-being”.
The passing of resolution 65 is a small stepping stone towards a wider recognition that ecological sustainability, equity, and life satisfaction are being given great emphasis in global politics. But whether gross national happiness (GNH) will ever substitue Gross National Income as one of the default measures of economic progress is doubtful.
Bhutan leads the world to a new economy of happiness (Guardian)
read more...»Life in the Slow Lane - UK Growth in 2011 Lags the Euro Area
Newly published and revised figures for growth in the UK economy show that output fell by 0.3% in the final three months of 2011, and that, over the year as a whole, real GDP in Britain climbed by a paltry 0.7% during the year as a whole. To put that into context, the crisis-ridden Euro Zone achieved growth of double that largely because of a strong performance from Germany.
Output in the UK remains well below the peak before recession engulfed the economy in the autumn of 2008. In the charts and links below we track some of the key economic indicators as the country stuggles to achieve a durable and resilient / robust upturn.
read more...»Budget 2012 - analysis with evidence
As ever, there are loads of sources that students can use to analyse the Budget and to extract pieces of Evidence for the Examples they will need to add depth to their analysis in essays. Those who are attending the current round of revision workshops will recognise this as a key part of ensuring that they write essays which PEEL the answer (each paragraph makes one Point, using Examples with Evidence, offering Evaluation and Linking to the question). As start points, I would suggest these sources which are reasonably free of opinions:
BBC website: Budget 2012 at a glance, Farewell 50p tax rate, and Over 65-s tax-free income freeze
The Guardian Budget 2012: welfare cuts, tax cuts too, but retreat on child benefit and for the visual learners a nice graphic version: Tax and spending plans visualised
UK leads the world in commercial use of the internet
How important is the’ internet economy’ as a contributor to UK GDP? According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group, it contributes 8.3% of our GDP, which is a larger proportion than in any other of the G20 economies. The report’s author told the Today programme this morning that this was down to the UKs “great broadband infrastructure” and that British business has taken to the internet and is exporting around the world, “leading the world in e-commerce”. You can hear the interview with him here.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Policies to Drive Economic Recovery
We were looking today in AS macro at the policy options being considered as part of a strategy to drive a stronger recovery in demand, output, jobs and investment in the UK economy.
I am trying to encourage my students to put things into context as soon as possible in their longer essay-style questions. Here are some thoughts on a question on policies designed to bolster growth:
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on UK Manufacturing
There have been lots of stories in recent days about the future for UK industry / manufacturing - here is a selection of audio and video links:
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Sovereign Wealth Funds
Students of A2 macro will no doubt becoming increasingly familiar with coverage of sovereign wealth funds in their study of global economics, trade, investment and currency developments. A sovereign wealth fund is a government or state run investment fund usually created by supernormal profits from natural resources such as oil, gas or minerals. Here is some brief background on them:
read more...»The Economics of Climate Change - Stern 5 Years On
Lord Nick Stern tonight gave the first of three lectures on the ethics and economics of climate change as the annual lecture series in honour of Lionel Robbins started at the LSE.
It is over five years since the publication of the Stern Report and much has happened in the intervening period. Stern however was at pains to emphasise that his core message remained undimmed, namely that the costs of inaction are enormous but the costs of early action to cut emissions are manageable. We have seen in recent years rapid technological change much of which is hugely encouraging in taking us closer to de-coupling the relationship between production and consumption and carbon emissions. But more is needed, Stern is arguing in these three lectures for a new industrial revolution, a deep set of changes to production processes and technologies that happens across every sector. The economics and politics of how progress might be made in moving towards a new revolution will be the focus of the second and third lectures.
LECTURE 1 - Tuesday 21 February 2012
What we risk and how we should cast the economics and ethics
LECTURE 2 - Wednesday 22 February 2012
How we can respond and prosper
LECTURE 3 - Thursday 23 February 2012
How we can get there: building national and international action
Unit 3 Micro: Inside the iPhone and Intellectual Property
This is a remarkable video featuring Geoff McCormick, director of UK design firm The Alloy that looks inside an iPhone at the component parts. Each and every iPhone contains thousands of patented components, ideas, designs and processes. Fantastic when teaching about the economics of intellectual property and the patent wars dominating the courts.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique
In the last twelve months two huge discoveries of natural gas have been made in the East African country of Mozambique. The latest - a deepwater discovery - is said to hold over 210 billion cubic metres of natural gas and investment in exploiting the field could be the major cataylst for a rapid phase of growth and development for one of the world’s poorest countries. The country has large untapped oil, coal and titanium reserves in addition to the gas. According to the UK Trade and Investment body, within 15 years Mozambique could be Africa’s second largest coal producer (after South Africa) and one of the largest coal exporters in the world.
Can it benefit in a sustainable way from exporting these resources or will they prove to be a curse on development?
For many years Mozambique has been afflicted by a brutal civil war which ended in 1992 and then a series of natural disasters including floods in 2001 and 2001 which destroyed much of its infrastructure.Floods were replaced by a calamitous drought in 2002 but more recently the economy has achieved strong growth and progress in lifting people out of absolute poverty. That said, 50% of Mozambicans living on less than $1 a day, foreign aid accounts for nearly half of government spending and there remain severe doubts about whether the dividends of an export-boom in natural resources will feed through the the majority of the population.
The Mozambique government has a 10% stake in the newly-discovered gas fields, it sold a licence to the Italian company Eni to explore for new gas reserves and Eni has committed to building a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas terminal in the country as a distribution platform to export mainly to fast-growing Asian economies.
Other transnational companies are investing in Mozambique. Vale, a Brazilian multinational is spending over $3 billion to rebuild and extend the 425 mile Nacala railway and connect it to a deep water port so that Mozambiquan coal can be exported.
Putting the infrastructure in place will take several years and gas production on a huge scale may not start before 2016. Although new industries brings risks as well as opportunities, the potential for a step change in development in the country is enormous.
read more...»Economics Explained, by Evan
Here is a great little article on the Today programme’s website by Evan Davis, looking at the relative merits of Plan A - Austerity - vs Plan B - government spending. He takes the arguments of Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, who believes that what’s required at the moment is a short term, temporary fiscal stimulus to boost output and jobs and of Roger Bootle, managing director of Capital Economics, who thinks it would be dangerous for the government to divert from its Plan A of spending cuts.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro:Video Resources on Human Development Data
Here is a short collection of short video resources on measuring human development with specific reference to the annual human development report and to progress in improving welfare in countries such as Kenya and Brazil
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Trade and Growth
Export demand can be an important driver of growth and development. For many years China has practiced export-led growth with exports accounting for over 40% of GDP. China ran a trade surplus with the rest of the world of around of $200 billion in 2009 – this looks huge, but is fairly modest as a share of GDP. The surplus on the balance of payment current account has diminished from over 10% of GDP in 2007 to less than 6% in each of 2010 and 2011. But China still has a structural trade / BoP surplus.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Focus on China - Changing Economic Structure
China has experienced fast growth in the last twenty years, in the last decade; the increase in Chinese GDP has been seven times the rise in the GDP of Japan. China has a new growth target of 8% pa for the next five years – a downgrading of growth but still way in excess of normal trend growth for any of the advanced economies such as the UK, Germany and the United States. In 2000, China’s accounted for 7.1% of the world’s total GDP (in PPP terms). By 2015 China will have a 19% share of global GDP. This is higher than any of the other BRIC nations
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Focus on India - World’s Cheapest Computer
A few weeks ago came the announcement that an Indian business is finally set to launch the World’s cheapest tablet computer. This laptop device will sell for around 18 times less than the price of an iPad in London! How can a laptop be manufactured for less than $US 40?
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