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Unit 4 Macro: Tourism and Economic Development

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

For many developing countries tourism is already a major part of their economy and a significant source of extra factor incomes and employment. But there is a fierce debate about the economic and social consequences of tourism - what roles can tourism play in economic development? Can travel to developing countries do more harm than good? This revision blog provides some arguments and resources on this topic.

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Structural Change in Asian and Australasian Countries

Using pubic data from the Asian Development Bank here are some illustrations of the structural changes in output that have occurred across a selection of countries in Far East Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Consider the magnitude of the changes that have taken place over the last twenty years. Note for revision which countries appear at the top and the bottom of each individual chart and think about WHY they appear in that position.

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Unit 4 Macro: Mauritania in search of growth and stability

Monday, April 14, 2014

If you are searching for a vivid example of a country experiencing primary product dependency have a look at this short video report from the Financial Times. The lower middle income west African country is trying to modernise their economy but remains deeply at risk from outside external shocks including over-dependency on a single mineral and terrorist threats. Inequality may be the biggest risk to it's future.

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Unit 4 Macro: Food imports set to rise in China

Saturday, April 12, 2014

This is a revealing perspective on the challenges facing China in producing enough food to feed the hundreds of millions of Chinese squeezed into their ever growing cities. 

China's policy makers are trying to increase the size of farms to exploit economies of scale and get their farmers to focus on cash crops. But the reality is that China will have to import a huge amount of food in the years to come - this creates big opportunities for farmers in China's trading partners.

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Higher of Lower? A fun way to learn predicted growth in GDP for the world’s major economies

Here's a quick a fun resource to help students learn the predicted economic growth of the world's major economies.  Although a student wouldn't be expected to quote percentage growth statistics, it is always handy to have some figures ready to use as evidence or, at least, an understanding of the world's fastest growing states.

The game is called 'Higher or Lower' and is very simple.  You are presented with the name of a country (e.g. China) and the predicted growth in GDP (compared to 2013) for 2014, as calculated by the IMF.  You are also presented with the name of another country (e.g. United Kingdom).  Your task is to say whether you think that the UK's predicted GDP growth is either higher or lower than that of China.  Get the answer correct you earn a point and are presented with a third country and must predict whether their growth is higher or lower than that of the UK.  However, get an answer wrong, you are out of the game!  The maximum score of 37 (the number of countries in the database).  Play the game a few times and really start to get a feel for the statistics for the different countries.  The game is randomly set up so you can run it a few times a get a different sequence of countries each time.

Challenge your friends!  Alternatively, you can go to the table on slide 3 of the resource and learn all of the figures off-by-heart!

Click on this link to upload the game.  It is a Powerpoint-based game so you will need to have Powerpoint on your PC or Mac (versions beyond 2003).  When prompted you should 'enable' macros.  Sorry, this game does not work on mobile devices or OS like Android.

Unit 4 Macro: Revision on Balance of Payments

Thursday, April 10, 2014

All exam boards require candidates to have an understanding of the Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates. In this session we will focus on the causes of the UK’s Balance of Trade (aka Current Account) deficit, what we can do about it, and how an exchange rate depreciation should affect an economy, and has affected the UK post financial crisis.

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Unit 4 Macro: The Rise of Managed Exchange Rates

The new IMF report on the global economy published in April 2014 includes a focus on the currency regimes chosen by emerging market countries.  An increasing number of central banks have switched from free-floating exchange rates to managed currency regimes - perhaps because they want to make more active use of the exchange rate as an instrument of monetary policy. 

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Unit 2 Macro: Supply Side Policies and Competitiveness

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

A revision presentation used at the workshop in Dubai on aspects of supply-side competitiveness in the UK economy

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Unit 4 Macro: African Exports to China - Benefits and Costs

Preferential market access to China is providing an important growth-enhancing outlet for African exporters that find it difficult to break into industrialised countries’ markets. But there remain dangers that current export structures and national capacity constraints may further entrap Africa given its comparative advantage in primary resources and China’s comparative advantage in manufacturing products.

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Unit 2 Macro: Fiscal Policy to improve Net Trade

Here is a good applied example of how fiscal policy can be used to help improve the UK's net trade position. Export finance is often a problem especially for small and medium sized businesses looking to expand beyond the domestic economy to new export markets. Improving the trade position is a key aspect of re-balancing the economy and make the recovery more sustainable.

Read: www.gov.uk/government/organisations/uk-exp...

Minsky’s economic insights

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

American economist Hyman Minsky was an interesting character who pops up around the edges of many of the things I read. The BBC posted an article about him that I recommend, with the provocative title Did Hyman Minsky find the secret behind financial crashes?

I’ve just summarised what the article describes as 5 key ideas that he presented in his work.

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Financing the current account deficit

More on the implications of the UK’s massive current account deficit. Geoff has put together almost everything you need on the topic here, and he points out that the main implication is a net leakage from the circular flow of income, reducing AD and weakening multiplier effects.

A current account deficit is not necessarily a disaster; after all, imports are good too, sustaining our standard of living and is partly a reflection of the demand for intermediate goods our economy needs to stay efficient.

I’m going to pick up on the the statement that there is nothing wrong with a trade deficit. It simply means that a country must rely on foreign direct investment or borrowed money to make up the difference.

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Unit 4 Macro: Focus on Rwanda

Saturday, March 29, 2014

The Rwandan economy comes under special focus in 2014 because it is twenty years since the genocide. This blog provides some summary growth and development data and links on Rwanda, a country that is attracting increasing interest from students and teachers as part of their development economics course.

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Unit 4 Macro: A Tale of Two Mexicos

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Are you studying Mexico as one of your chosen countries of focus for the A2 growth and development paper for EdExcel? If so, this new report from McKinsey might be of particular relevance for you. Either way, there will be plenty of useful comment here on development and growth drivers and constraints.

Unit 2 Macro: Growth is Not Enough

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

In this new RSA Short, Kate Raworth makes a powerful argument to look beyond economic growth alone for a true measure of prosperity and progress. Read more about Kate Raworth's work and her idea of doughnut economics by clicking this link http://www.kateraworth.com and follow her on twitter @KateRaworth 

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F585 Pre-Release Resources (and F583, F582 & F581 too)

Sunday, March 23, 2014

I thought it worthwhile sharing my resources which I have been collecting for students (and teachers alike). I have been promoting them on Twitter (@Economics_KSF) through scoop.it but for those of you not on there, the link for the scoop.it boards are here:

http://www.scoop.it/u/economics-kcsf

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Paul Ormerod: Trends in Inequality: Truth and Myth

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Concern about inequalities of income and wealth is now a fashionable topic. It featured strongly in the gathering of the world’s top brass at Davos earlier this year. Much of the popular coverage of the topic gives the impression that not only is inequality at record highs, but that it is confined to the wicked Anglo-Saxon economies. A recent paper published by authors linked to the George Soros-funded Institute for New Economic Thinking shows very decisively that neither of these points is true.

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Unit 4 Macro: Oxfam and IMF Focus on Inequality

Monday, March 17, 2014

Inequality is an issue that remains firmly in the spotlight of the news media and also of policy makers in different countries.

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Corruption and the economy

Pub economics often explains the plight of poor countries in terms of the problems posed by corruption. That approach might have some value, and to raise the quality of your analysis of this topic, it’s helpful to say why and how it might arise, and the effects it might have. Rich countries are also vulnerable of course.

The Economist has a really helpful couple of articles on this topic, which it calls ‘crony capitalism’.

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Paul Ormerod: Luddites are alive and well in the Ukraine

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

On 31 January 1990, a great event took place in Pushkin Square, Moscow. A branch of MacDonald’s was opened. The same excitement was generated in Kiev on 24 May 1997, when the MacDonald’s franchise was extended to the Ukraine. The American author Thomas Friedman wrote in 1999 that no two countries with such a franchise had ever gone to war with each other. It is a striking and imaginative image, which rapidly spread to become part of the received wisdom of the chattering classes. If economic prosperity could become spread more widely across the world, liberalism and tolerance would follow.

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Unit 4 Macro: Low Investment Stifles the World Economy

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Six reasons for low business investment are advanced in this article - private sector capital spending is a key driver of growth - why have companies been reluctant to authorize investment projects despite an environment of low interest rates?

Some Topical Issues in Trade and Development

Monday, March 03, 2014

I was delighted to give a talk to A2 economists at Wilson's School in Surrey today covering some aspects of trade and development economics. In particular we looked at the work of Hidalgo and Hausmann and their newly published Index of Economic Complexity. The slides from my talk are streamed below.

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Quiz on the Index of Economic Complexity

Sunday, March 02, 2014

The Atlas of Economic Complexity is a new book (perfect for the coffee table) from Richard Hausmann and Cesar Hidalgo. It maps out the degree of complexity of individual economies around the world and provides a hugely visual and interesting insight into the importance of knowledge in shaping the future prosperity of countries in the global economy. I have put together a 10 question quiz on some of their key results - a useful activity I hope for students interested in the commodity composition of trade of developed and developing countries. Have a go!

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IMF joins in the inequality debate

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Inequality might be falling between nations as a global middle class is emerging, but inequality is on the rise within nations. Quite why this is happening is a matter of debate, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has joined in the discussion asking if rising inequality is an obstacle to economic growth and development.

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Michael Metcalfe: We need money for aid. So let’s print it

During the financial crisis, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom and Japan created $3.7 trillion in order to buy assets and encourage investors to do the same. Michael Metcalfe from State Street argues that these same central banks print money to ensure they stay on track with their goals for global aid? Without risking inflation? A Print-Aid matching scheme could boost aid payments by up to 40% or $200 billion.

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Growth and Development Challenges and Opportunities for Mexico

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

In this independent research assignment, Year 12 Economist Doug Feagin considers some of the factors influencing the macroeconomic performance of Mexico - a fascinating country and one of the MINT cluster of countries discussed by Jim O'Neill in his recent programmes for the BBC. 

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Manufacturing in Africa

Monday, February 24, 2014

Economics coverage of Africa can be a bit bleak (though perhaps it shouldn't be, with incomes rising rapidly in parts of Africa). There are often bad news stories, particularly in terms of human development indicators. News of economic progress often centres on the exploitation of primary commodities, with all the risks and issues that presents.

If you hope Africa will experience development, you’re likely to want to see sustained and robust economic growth. That, in turn, will require industrialization.

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Robert Peston - How China Ruled the World

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Robert Peston looks at the astonishing investment in urban infrastructure in China in recent years - 30 new airports, 26,000 miles of motorways and a new skyscraper every five days have been built in China in the last five years - required viewing for those interested in a key aspect of Chinese economic growth and development. Link to How China Ruled the World (BBC World)

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OCR F585: Economic Growth and Development in Sub Saharan Africa

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Here are some links relevant to the June 2014 pre-release case study on economic prospects and challenges for the countries of sub Saharan Africa.

The IMF expects seven of the world’s fastest growing countries during the next five years will be in Sub-Saharan Africa – Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia.

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Eurozone problems - excellent video resource

Friday, February 14, 2014

Gains from international trade, the history of European economic integration, fiscal and monetary policy, the launch of the €uro and the 2008 financial crisis are all clearly animated and explained in this superb video. In just over 12 minutes it explains the problems of the €urozone and the threats and challenges it still faces. Definitely one to watch for the closing stages of an A2 macro course.

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Valentine’s challenge to Comparative Advantage

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Sometimes it’s worth challenging a concept that is fundamental to Economics, such as specialisation or the theory of comparative advantage (video here). This crucial theory views international trade as profitable even for a country that can produce every commodity more cheaply than any other country (an absolute advantage). According to Robert Skidelsky, the textbook example is that of a town’s best lawyer who is also its best typist. Provided that she is better at law than at typing, she should specialize in law and leave her secretary to do the typing. That way, both of their earnings will be higher. The same logic applies to countries. Each country should specialize in producing those things that it produces most efficiently, rather than producing a bit of everything, because that way its income will be higher.

Why does Skidelsky go on to challenge that view?

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Unit 4 Macro: Is Norway suffering from Dutch Disease?

Sunday, February 09, 2014

Norway has for many years recorded an enviable macroeconomic performance. It regularly tops the international rankings for the Human Development Index (HDI) and it has one of the highest figures for GNI per capita (PPP) among developed nations. It records huge current account surpluses in excess of 10% of GDP each year and strong growth and surging revenues from oil and gas production have given the Norwegian government a fiscal position that many other countries would die for!  Unemployment is the lowest of any European country.

That said there are some signs that the economy is suffering from an over-dependence on oil and gas - it is at risk of the Dutch Disease? 

The Dutch Disease is the idea that economic growth from exploiting and exporting natural resources can crowd out investment in other sectors, in part due to a strengthening exchange rate which causes a sharp rise in relative unit labour costs. High wages are also seen as a factor behind a trend decline in the average hours worked and a rise in the drop-out rate from high school education. 

Manufacturing wages in Norway have climbed by more than 150 per cent since 1997 against just 50 per cent in the US and Germany They are now 60-70 per cent higher than the weighted average of Norway’s trading partners, meaning “that for every hour worked here we need to be 60 per cent more productive”. (FT, 7 Feb 2014)

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Unit 4 Macro: Currency Instability in the Fragile Five

Wednesday, February 05, 2014

This is a superb article from the Economist for A2 macro students wanting to understand more about the fragility of a large cluster of emerging economies. 

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Irish Bonds no longer ‘junk’. What does this mean?

Celebrations in Ireland as the credit ratings agencies no longer regard Irish government debt as ‘junk’, according to the BBC. What does this mean and why does it matter? Here are some bond market reminders and links, helping to explain how governments borrow, and at what cost.

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Unit 4 Macro: Eurasia and Natural Resources

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Natural resource economics are applied in this new World Bank blog to the Eurasian region - plenty of overlap with your studies on the issue in the context of sub Saharan Africa and other parts of the world. Click here for the blog article. 

Click here for a blog article on the natural resource curse from Graham Watson (2012)

Our streamed revision presentation on the topic is below

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Building a Future for Chocolate

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Here is a short video on the challenges and opportunities facing cocoa producers across the world but especially in sub Saharan Africa which accounts for 70% of global production. Supply is struggling to keep pace with rising world demand and there have been some structural declines in production in several countries.

The FT's Emiko Terazono reports from Ghana on how chocolate manufacturers and traders are striving to boost cocoa supplies, which are coming under pressure from climate change and urbanisation amid growing demand for confectionery in emerging markets. Farmers are being encouraged to develop supplementary incomes and invest in sustainable production methods.

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Imports are good too!

Monday, January 27, 2014

We are often (quite rightly), talking about Britain’s disappointing export performance. There are lots of good reasons to promote exports – an injection into the circular flow of income and the X in C+I+G+(X-M)

But don’t fall for the trap of thinking that exports=good and imports=bad. In the final analysis, one of the main reasons for exports is to pay for imports. Imports play a crucial role in making our economy more efficient.

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Macro Policy Challenges in India and Japan

Sunday, January 26, 2014

My A2 macro students are now looking at some fascinating macro policy challenges facing a range of countries. This week they choose one from two set assignments. 

The first offers them an opportunity to analyse some of the causes of high inflation in India and consider how much of a threat it is to India's continued growth and development. 

A second assignment looks at Abenomics in Japan and whether it can lift the Japanese economy out of over two decades of slow growth and deflationary pressures. I am hoping that there will be some interesting insights allied to good A2 macro analysis as students crack on with their independent research. 

Download the assignment sheet below and I have added in some suggestions for further reading on the two topics

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Working for the Few - Development and Inequality

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Notes from a talk given by Ricardo Fuentes-Nieva (Head of Research at Oxfam) at the Marshall Society Economics Conference in Cambridge in January 2014

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The Emerging World and Poverty - Where Next?

Notes taken from the Marshall Society Economics Conference  - this panel session focused on growth and development issues in South Korea and sub Saharan Africa

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Poverty: New Thinking About an Old Problem

Here are some notes taken from a talk given by Peter Coy, Economics Editor for Bloomberg Businessweek, at the Marshall Society Economics Conference in Cambridge in January 2015

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China’s Development - Past Present and Future

Notes from a talk given by Liu Xiaoming, Chinese ambassador to the UK at the Marshall Society economics conference in Cambridge in January 2014.

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30 Most Innovative Countries in the World

Friday, January 24, 2014

Successful innovation is a driving dynamic of competitive businesses and countries. Bloomberg Rankings recently examined 215 countries and sovereign regions to determine their innovation quotient. They have narrowed this down to thirty countries and the results are available through this Bloomberg slideshow. Which nation comes first?

Click here to find out

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Saudi Arabia - the ‘dominant producer’ in the world’s oil market

Saudi Arabia’s position as one of the largest players in the global oil market, producing more than a tenth of the world’s output and owning a quarter of the world’s proven reserves, has negative effects on other market participants. Writing in the Economic Journal, Anton Nakov and Galo Nuño document two features that have made the Kingdom different from other oil producers:

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Exchange rates and the ‘Big Mac’ Index

Thursday, January 23, 2014

This is a great learning aid, especially if you've not come across it before.  If you're trying to understand exchange rates, you often end up wondering which countries have overvalued exchange rates (that should, ideally, depreciate in value) or those that are undervalued (where appreciation would probably help).

The idea is so simple - find a product that's available in most countries, produced to a standardised design, and that serves as a reasonable 'basket of goods' capturing a range of price data for the economy you're looking at.  By this measure, the countries with expensive Big Macs have overvalued exchange rates and cheap Big Macs means an undervalued exchange rate.

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Unit 4 Macro: Latvia Joins the Euro

Monday, January 20, 2014

On the 1st January 2014, Latvia became the 18th country to enter the single currency Euro area, joining Estonia who adopted the Euro four years ago. How will it affect the economy? Are the forecast benefits greater than the costs and risks? Here are some resources on the issue:

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Government help for exports - could do better?

Sunday, January 19, 2014

This report which the Public Accounts Committee published on Friday, entitled Supporting UK exporters overseas, gives a useful piece of background reading, as it marries up AS and A2 level theory, and micro and macro topics. It looks at the combined efforts of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and UK Trade and Industry to help UK firms, particularly small and medium sized businesses, boost their exports and so contribute to UK GDP recovery. The summary of the report on the PAC website could be used by students to consider a couple of questions:

How many examples of government failure can you identify?

Given that the UK does not currently use monetary policy to influence the exchange rate, what mix of government policies might be used in order to meet the target of doubling exports by 2020?

The Specialisation ‘Myth’

Friday, January 03, 2014

On Project Syndicate, economist Ricardo Hausmann argues that urging cities, regions, and countries to specialise can be wrong and even dangerous.

An interesting point, as almost everyone studying economics assumes that the basic idea is so intuitive and obvious that it is hard to deny it. See what you think.

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MINT - The Next Economic Giants (BBC Radio 4)

Monday, December 30, 2013

Here is a new series on BBC radio 4 that will excite students and teachers who enjoy tracking the changing centre of gravity in the world economy. Jim O’Neill, former chief economist and head of asset management at Goldman Sachs, presents the flagship four-part series in Radio 4’s focus on the MINT countries – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – tipped as the next to assume their places at the high table of economic success. Details of the programme can be found here.

Eton College Economics Society: No More Business as Usual

In November 2013, Anthony Beaumont from Eton College organised a panel event on lessons to be learnt from the Global Financial Crisis. The highly successful event was attended by over 500 students from nearly forty schools and colleges. The panel included Anne Pettifor, Ha-Joon Change, Paul Ormerod and Crispin Odey. Tutor2u was pleased to sponsor the event by producing a colour booklet containing some relevant articles to the discussion. If you would like to have  a look at it, please check it out using the streamed presentation below. 

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