The Euro
Better off out than in?
Yes says Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in his piece in the Telegraph today arguing that the UK economy might have been dealt a much tougher blow from the fallout from the credit crunch had we been locked into the single currency zone. I have been discussing this with my A2 students this morning. When external shocks occur, the key to stabilising prices, demand and output is to have a flexible supply-side, fiscal policy autonomy and control over monetary policy. The UK has all three to a reasonable degree and I cannot help thinking that the sliding sterling-euro exchange rate is key to all of this.
Ambrose writes: “As Neil Mellor from the Bank of New York Mellon points out, the pound has been perfectly hedged in this cycle. Sterling has fallen hard against the euro, giving a shot in the arm to British manufacturers (yes, they still exist, 13pc of GDP) who rely heavily on Europe’s markets: yet it remains overvalued against the dollar, softening the effect of oil, metal, and commodity inflation. The shock absorber is working. The Bank of England has already cut rates three times.”
It is interesting when you chat to city and industry economists that discussion of the possible entry of the UK into the Euro Zone is completely off the agenda, the prospect does not exist. The debate has moved on for good.
Chart of the Day: Interest rates in the Euro Zone, UK and USA
The US Fed is doing it, the Bank of England is doing it, so why is the European Central Bank sitting on its hands and refusing to budge policy interest rates lower? Do they think that the Euro Zone will be largely immune from the credit squeeze? Are they not concerned about the abnormally high value of the Euro against the US dollar which is putting so much pressure on western European exporters? Euro Zone rates have been on hold for a year now.
read more...»Slovakia applies to join the Euro
Slovakia today made a formal application to join the single European currency and bid to become the fourth of Europe’s new member states to progress to the next stage of economic integration by locking themselves into the Euro. A verdict on entry is likely to come as early as May 7th when the EU commission publishes new economic forecasts which will include data on the key convergence criteria for wannabee euro zone members. If all goes well, Slovakia will enter the single currency system on 1st January 2009.
ECB inertia threatens the slow lane
Central banks in the USA and the UK are cutting interest rates as credit crunch 2.0 takes hold. But the European Central Bank is holding firm with official rates at 4 per cent despite mounting evidence that the surging Euro-dollar exchange rate is hitting investment, exports and growth prospects. Why the inertia? And is the ECB so firmly fixated on the altar of price stability that it is prepared to allow the Eurozone economy to tumble into a growth recession thus putting the future of the single currency area under theat?
