Investment in Energy Infrastructure
Many people take as given a pressing need to increase capital investment in the infrastructure of our energy sectors - but how strong are the economic and social impacts of such investment? The LSE Growth Commission met this week to discuss this and I have brought together some of the arguments drawing on a number of various twitter feeds
read more...»Tullow Oil and African Development
Yesterday I spent a fascinating evening in the company of Aidan Heavey, Founder and CEO of Tullow Oil plc, Africa’s leading independent oil exploration business and the top performer among FTSE-100 listed businesses on the UK stock exchange. It has approximately 100 production and exploration licenses in 22 countries.
read more...»Unit 1 Micro: Externalities - Deepwater Horizon 2 Years On
This short Al Jazeerah report looks at the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon disaster and the impact it continues to have on the regional fishing industry. Two years since oil company BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a massive oil spill, fishermen in the region are still suffering. The explosion killed 11 people and resulted in the worst accidental offshore oil spill in US history.
read more...»Unit 1 Micro: Breaking Down the Cost of Gas
High gas prices impact on millions of households whose energy bills have soared in recent years and have led to a steep increase in fuel poverty among lower-income families. Studying the market for gas is interesting from a micro-economic perspective and a recent article in the Times (covered by a paywall) provided an overview of the breakdown of the cost structure of a typical energy bill from suppliers such as British Gas
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: Might Oil Prices Bring another Recession?
The international price of crude oil has been rising strongly in recent weeks and threatens to be an external factor driving an already weak Euro Zone and UK economy back into recession.
read more...»Unit 2 Macro: The Dash for Gas in Mozambique
In the last twelve months two huge discoveries of natural gas have been made in the East African country of Mozambique. The latest - a deepwater discovery - is said to hold over 210 billion cubic metres of natural gas and investment in exploiting the field could be the major cataylst for a rapid phase of growth and development for one of the world’s poorest countries. The country has large untapped oil, coal and titanium reserves in addition to the gas. According to the UK Trade and Investment body, within 15 years Mozambique could be Africa’s second largest coal producer (after South Africa) and one of the largest coal exporters in the world.
Can it benefit in a sustainable way from exporting these resources or will they prove to be a curse on development?
For many years Mozambique has been afflicted by a brutal civil war which ended in 1992 and then a series of natural disasters including floods in 2001 and 2001 which destroyed much of its infrastructure.Floods were replaced by a calamitous drought in 2002 but more recently the economy has achieved strong growth and progress in lifting people out of absolute poverty. That said, 50% of Mozambicans living on less than $1 a day, foreign aid accounts for nearly half of government spending and there remain severe doubts about whether the dividends of an export-boom in natural resources will feed through the the majority of the population.
The Mozambique government has a 10% stake in the newly-discovered gas fields, it sold a licence to the Italian company Eni to explore for new gas reserves and Eni has committed to building a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas terminal in the country as a distribution platform to export mainly to fast-growing Asian economies.
Other transnational companies are investing in Mozambique. Vale, a Brazilian multinational is spending over $3 billion to rebuild and extend the 425 mile Nacala railway and connect it to a deep water port so that Mozambiquan coal can be exported.
Putting the infrastructure in place will take several years and gas production on a huge scale may not start before 2016. Although new industries brings risks as well as opportunities, the potential for a step change in development in the country is enormous.
read more...»Externalities Cartoon
KAL, The Economist’s cartoonist, has produced an excellent cartoon in the latest issue perfect for a discussion of a very topical externalities issue in North America. And one that has also been ‘causing tremors’ in the news over here too!
read more...»Unit 4 Macro: Russia Joins the WTO
I am using Russia’s entry to the World Trade Organisation in my teaching on international trade and development this term. It appear to be a significant moment for the global economy. Russia is the last member of the Group of 20 major economies to join, after China gained membership in 2001. Progress towards membership has been delayed by numerous geo-political issues not least the disputes with neighbouring Georgia.
Joining the WTO involves making a commitment to the rules of the international trade system - for Russia as with other new members, this will mean reduced import tariffs, the staged elimination of industrial domestic and export subsidies, and better greater access to foreign companies. Russia will also have to improve adherence to international accounting standards.
* Russia’s average bound tariff will be 7.3 percent for manufactured products (compared with 9.5 percent currently)
* Farm tariffs will be 10.8 percent (compared with 13.2 percent currently)
* Russia commits to zero export subsidies on agricultural products - to end by 2017
* Russia will privatise 100 pct of United Grain Company by 2012
* Russia will introduce duty-free and quota-free provisions for the least developed countries
* Russia will eliminate preferential tariffs for carmakers making large investments in Russian-based production by July 1, 2018
* Russia plans to introduce International Accounting Standards
How would you use a supply and demand diagram to show the impact of a fall in an import tariff?
Russian exports as a share of her GDP has actually been on a declining trend in recent years. Will movements towards trade and foreign investment liberalisation reverse this through trade creation and FDI effects? How can a stronger commitment to becoming an open economy supprot higher living standards over time? What are the risks for Russia of WTO accession?
read more...»Zondle Game: 10 Question Quiz about OPEC
OPEC continues to be in the news in an age of high and volatile crude oil prices. Here is a ten question quiz on OPEC created using Zondle designed to test student knowledge of this important international group.
AS Micro: What´s really behind the oil price rise?
The price of oil continues to rise ($114.61 per barrel) and there a number of reasons put forward why this is so, none perhaps more pertinent than the reason explained in this WSJ article.
read more...»Externalities of Oil Pollution
The Boston Globe’s Big Picture has just published a set of remarkable photos. Collectively they are a stunning set of images that reminds one of the economic and social costs of the disaster and the nature of externalities - and colleagues may want to return to this resource to stimulate discussion and support visual learners. Here is the link.
AS Micro: The volatile price of crude oil
Few commodity prices are watched as closely as the international price of crude oil. Brent crude is currently trading at over $122 a barrel - the highest price for over two years. Our Timetric chart is constantly updated and will always show the latest price. We have included below links to many of our recent blogs on the economics of oil prices and some of their micro and macro economic effects.
read more...»OPEC oil revenues set to surge above $1 trillion in 2011
A combination of higher prices and higher oil production means that Opec’s oil revenues may exceed $1 trillion in 2011 for the first time. The International Energy Agency has published some new data on Opec production - the revenue forecast includes exports of natural gas liquids and is not adjusted for the effects of inflation. But if you are a Finance Minister of an oil exporting country the price of crude trading at $115 is welcome news especially given the stimulus spending that some countries have introduced as a response to social and political unrest. On some estimates, Saudi Arabia (the world’s largest oil producer and exporter) needs oil to be priced at $83 for its national budget to balance.
read more...»Accessible UK Budget resource
It’s not always easy to navigate your way through the budget, with its mass of technical detail and complexity. Not all of it is terribly interesting either (nor the manner of presentation).
read more...»Timetric: UK Balance of Trade in Oil
The UK economy is now a net importer of oil - a change from the many years of trade surpluses in oil seen from the late 1970s onwards as north sea production and exporting gained scale and momentum. The Timetric chart below tracks the monthly trade balance in oil and the one below it tracks the monthly value of oil exports and imports.
read more...»Ghana becomes a producer of crude oil
Could the extraction of crude oil in Ghana be enough on its own to double their growth rate and provide a funding platform for enormous infrastructure spending? That is the optimistic hope of the government on the day that oil started to flow from an oil field that may have upwards of two billion barrels available.
Oil has the potential to provide new riches for a country that has won plaudits for improved governance and macroeconomic stability. The state plans to allocate some of the revenue from the oil to fund extra spending in education, health care, industry, and infrastructure. But there are many risks too - economic, environment, social and political. Especially if the new wealth from black gold in their oceans flows only to a small minority.
Nigeria and Angola are Africa’s largest oil producers - see this background article from Reuters
Here is a selection of news articles on the arrival of Ghana as an oil producer. Oil is an opportunity and a challenge.
read more...»Tacit collusion between oil producers and consumers?
Are crude oil prices set to rise above $100 a barrel and stay there as we head into 2011? As our chart shows, there has been a steady increase in world oil prices over the last two years and a barrel of oil is now comfortably above $90. World economic growth is picking up - the main driver is strong activity in fast-growing emerging nations - and the oil producer cartel OPEC has announced that it sees no need to increase their output quotas in a way to stabilise the price below $90.
Energy Oligopoly - Price Investigation is Launched
The industry regulator Ofgem has announced a fresh investigation into the pricing policies of the oligopolistic electricity and gas market - for consumer lobbying groups the wait has been too long but many analysts point to data that shows that many gas supply businesses for example have been operating at a loss for much of the last decade. And that net profit margins are pretty thin compared to the total fuel bill for household customers. More details here Everyone gets hot under the collar about energy prices but the reality is that gas and electricity is no longer cheap and too little progress has been made in ways to reduce our energy consumption.
Tea with the Economist - Stephen King
Stephen King, Chief Global Economist of HSBC is a good friend of Tutor2u having appeared at several of our recent teacher conferences. He has a terrific grasp and feel for some of the salient global shifts in economic power and influence and he speaks in this video to The Economist about the growing demand for scarce resources from fast growing emerging markets and the challenges this poses for the West.
Broker spends $520m in a drunken stupor and moves the global oil price
Not an example you would find in a standard textbook - but a fun one to use nonetheless!
AS Economics Revision - Oil and Petrol Prices
This week we have heard news that the price of petrol and diesel at the pumps has reached a record high.
The data chart above provides another opportunity for students to familiarise themselves with changes in price information over time and perhaps try this question
“Using the extract, identify two points of comparison between UK diesel and petrol prices and the world price of crude oil over the period shown by the data” (8 marks)
read more...»Revision Presentation - The World Oil Market
The forces of supply and demand in the global oil market feature frequently in economics exams. So here is a revision update on what has happened to the world oil market in the last 12 months. It was a year when crude oil prices recovered quite strongly from their lows at the start of 2009. As we head into 2010, the price of a barrel of crude is rising above $80 and strong economic growth in emerging market countries together with the lagged effects of reduced investment in oil exploration and drilling may take prices closer to $100 in the year ahead.
Launch revision presentation on World Oil Market in 2009
Download revision slide handouts
Tories plan break up of energy oligopoly
We have been studying oligopoly in our A2 micro and the issue of electricity and gas prices has been headline news for some time. Last week the Conservatives announced plans to break up the highly concentrated domestic energy supply market and inject fresh competition. This is reported here in the Guardian. There is a super paragraph that explains the oligopolistic nature of the industry:
“The industry has since consolidated into EDF, E.ON, RWE npower, Centrica, Scottish Power (owned by Iberdrola) and Scottish and Southern Energy, which control the production and supply of electricity and gas to almost all UK households and businesses. Only a handful of small independent power plant operators and tiny suppliers survive. Energy analysts say the market dominance by the Big Six makes it impossible for anyone else to gain a foothold.”
Market dominance is reinforced by the highly vertically integrated nature of these energy giants.
“they own power plants and source the gas themselves to supply their own customers. This means they will always be profitable at a group level because their retail businesses subsidise their power plant arms when generating costs are high and vice-versa”
The energy companies have been accused of engaging in implicit price collusion - tor the main product they most actively sell - direct debit for dual fuel, gas and electricity - the price difference between the cheapest and most expensive is £30 a year or around 60 pence per week. The consumer watchdog EnergyWatch has complained that British consumers are being ripped off by a “comfortable oligopoly” of bloated electricity and gas supply companies.
TED Talk: Edward Burtynsky photographs the landscape of oil
Edward Burtynsky photographs the landscape of oil from extraction to refinement and to the end of oil - cars, tyres, planes, and the environmental impact. His manufactured landscapes DVD is a tremendous resource.
Fast growing developing countries may mean end of era of cheap oil
A good video to use here when teaching the economics of the oil market/
Peak oil theory and economic implications
There is a highly relevant article on the depletion of global oil reserves and how this might affect UK energy policy in the Telegraph. The article links to concepts such as the marginal cost of extraction of different oil fields and the viability of exploring for oil at different prices.
“The timing of the global peak remains uncertain but the window is rapidly narrowing. Since 1993, the world has produced half as much oil as was produced in the preceding century and now uses as much oil as the UK has ever produced in only 10 months. On current estimates, we have used between 28pc and 56pc of recoverable conventional oil – with much of what remains being located in smaller fields in less accessible locations, or requiring “enhanced recovery” techniques to extract.”
The rest of the article can be found here
The Big Question looks at peak oil theory
The Big Question feature in the Independent asks whether the recent discovery of a giant new oil field by BP undermines peak oil theory? There is a nifty oil supply and demand graphic focusing on known oil reserves. The article also places emphasis on the importance of current and expected oil prices in driving oil exploration and extraction.
“We simply do not know how much oil is left on the planet. What we do know is that the ratio of reserves to production has remained relatively constant for many years. This isn’t because of new discoveries; rather it is because as prices rise it becomes easier to extract more oil from existing fields; as companies drill, they realise there is more there than they thought. So yields in-crease. Raising recovery rates from 35 per cent to 50 per cent would double world reserves to more than 2,400 billion barrels.”
Falling oil prices hit oil exporting nations
The sharp drop in the world price of crude oil last year was good news for motorists although it takes some time for lower oil prices to feed through to the retail price of diesel and petrol. But for countries highly dependent on oil exports, the decline in world crude prices is having a significant effect on their balance of payments, GDP growth and fiscal balances.
As this excellent BBC article points out, oil accounts for more than 90% of Saudi Arabia’s exports, and nearly 75% of the government’s revenues. Taken as a whole, oil exporting nations could face a 53% fall in revenues this year as oil prices remain low. Little wonder that finance ministers of oil exporters are hoping that crude prices head higher in 2010 on the back of a broader global economic recovery.
More here on price volatility in the world oil market
Economics Snapshot - Hedging the Fuel Price
Hedging is a way of reducing uncertainty over the future path of volatile commodity prices such as the cost of fuel. One the most important decisions that an airline can take is the extent to which it uses hedging to lock in the price of a barrel of kerosene for a period of six or twelve months.
Ryanair provides a good example of how this can have a decisive effect on profitability. Late in 2008 Ryanair was hedged into paying the equivalent of $125 a barrel for kerosene just as the world price price of oil was collapsing to below $40 a barrel - the result was higher operating costs and a Euro 150 million hit on profits. For 2009 around four-fifths of Ryanair’s fuel requirements are locked in at $62 a barrel which with oil prices nudging up towards $70 a barrel will give the airline much needed breathing space as the recession affects demand for seats and forces many airlines to cut prices still further to maintain a profitable level of load-factor (the percentage of seats on each flight that are filled).
*Ryanair is now Europe’s largest airline having overtaken Lufthansa and British Airways
*In the last twelve months nearly 60 million passengers have flown with the airline
*With a market capitalisation of £4.6 billion, Ryanair is larger than the German flag carrier and easily more than twice the size of BA.
*Ryanair has a 28% stake in rival Irish airline Aer Lingus and has tried several times to take it over - so far without success!
OPEC compliance dips with the oil price
Weak oil prices test the resolve of the eleven members of the oil cartel OPEC whose output is bound by quota agreements. The International Energy Agency reported that in June the compliance rate for OPEC members fell to 68% after reaching 80% earlier on in the years - in a nutshell, a number of OPEC countries are pumping more oil out of the ground than allowed by their quotas.
OPEC has 36% of current world crude oil production - it expects this to edge towards 40% over the next twenty years. Global oil-demand forecasts are heavily dependent in the short term on the strength of any anticipated rebound in world trade and output. In the medium term demand will be affected by the scale of a substitution towards renewables such as bio-fuels, wind and solar energy supplies. Lower oil prices makes these alternatives less profitable in the near term.
