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You’ll often hear it said that Britain, or the world, is ‘overpopulated’, but that’s a very hard concept to pin down. Hostility to migrants into the UK is high, yet economists often argue we need more immigrants.
One Labour MP, Stella Creasy, has stirred controversy by saying “talk to Nigel Farage not just about the immigrants who come here and create jobs, but the immigrants who come here and create skills and create opportunities for people and create new ideas for people. There are now more people over the age of 65 than under the age of 16 in Britain. So unless women like me have a lot of children very quickly our ability to sustain our economy (and) to sustain our public services will come under threat”.
So do extra people add to the economy or subtract from it? I’ve put together a few links and ideas.read more...»
The first title in the list of six available to RES entrants is a challenging one!
Promoting growth and fighting poverty should be the priority in the developing world, not reducing greenhouse gases.” Do you agree?read more...»
This blog entry will feature frequently updated revision resources on economic growth trade and development aspects for a range of sub Saharan African countriesread more...»
Mozambique has discovered large amounts of natural gas - can the extraction of this act as a catalyst for economic growth and development or will Mozambique be added to the long list of countries who have experienced a natural resource curse?
Manuel Chang, Mozambique's minister of finance, says economic growth is only part of the story of a country's development. He tells Javier Blas of the Financial Times how his nation plans to make the most of its vast natural resources.
Manufacturing output in the African continent accounts for less than 2% of global manufacturing production.read more...»
I am really grateful to Bob Denham from Econ Films who has shared with us this newly launched video from the International Growth Centre. It focuses on the competitive challenges facing Pakistan's football manufacturing sector as it loses market share to countries such as China and Indonesia. Footballs in Pakistan are still made mainly by hand, stitching together hexagons and pentagons - a process that leads to a lot of waste and higher unit costs and which then affects the profitability of businesses in what is already a low-margin sector.
Could a team of economists find better ways of cutting the patterns for footballs and then align the incentives of workers and owners? This is a fascinating short video which captures many aspects of the Unit 4 development economics course. Enjoy!read more...»
Guinea has agreed a huge new capital investment framework with a number of transnational partners including Rio Tinto and Chinalco to develop one of the world's biggest iron ore assets. This is a project that may double the country's GDP not least because as well as mining the iron ore, there is a proposal to seek funding to construct a 650km railway and a deep-water port to transport the rocks and minerals.
It is one of those examples that comes along every once in a while that prompts both students and teachers to re-visit the economics of large scale foreign direct investment projects. Is this nation building of the old style? Or is the proposed investment framework one that could be genuinely transformative for one of the world's poorest countries?
- Forecast of 45,000 new jobs created across the entire project
- State of Guinea will retain 15% of any proceeds from the mine
- In exchange, the joint venture with Rio Tinto / Chinalco will enjoy eight years' tax free operations in the country
- Production at the Simandou mine is expected to start within five years
- It will be Africa's biggest mine
Here is a short interview in which it is argued that China will increasingly focus on the quality of growth rather than the quantity. A Chinese slowdown may affect countries that have exported to China more than China itself.read more...»
This short World Bank info-video looks at what $1 buys in China. In China, over 98 million people live on less than 6.3 yuan ($1) per day.read more...»
It is a staggering statistics, but around 3 billion people in the world cook and heat their homes using open fires and simple stoves burning biomass (wood, animal dung and crop waste) and coal. Over 4 million people die prematurely from illness attributable to the household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels. And more than 50% of premature deaths among children under 5 are due to pneumonia caused by particulate matter (soot) inhaled from household air pollution. This short World Bank video looks at the subsidies available to stove manufacturers under the Clean Stove Initiative.read more...»
There has been huge interest in the new book by Thomas Piketty entitled "Capital in the 21st Century". This blog entry will link to some reviews, news articles and short videos on Piketty's ideas and policy prescriptions. In "Capital," French economist Thomas Piketty explores how wealth and the income derived from it magnifies the problems of inequality. At the heart of it is a simple equation R > G - the rate of return on capital is higher than the rate of economic growth. Naturally there is a fierce debate about the data and his methodology!
Recent news articles:
Are we living in the second gilded age? (Linda Yueh, BBC)
Review of "Capitalism in the Twenty First Century"(The Independent)read more...»
Here is a quick note about a news item which provides some excellent evidence of inward FDI in Africa, Chinese investment in access to commodities, and the costs and benefits for an LEDC of overseas investment.read more...»
There seems to be a huge amount of relevant material in here for students preparing for their A2 F585 paper - extract 5 of the pre-release case study focuses on economic growth and development in Sub Saharan Africa. Click this link: http://africaprogresspanel.org/publications/policy...
I’ve been teaching a while, so I was very interested to see an Economist article return to a topic I remembered from way back in 2000, when the multinational company Intel had recently embarked on a significant investment in Costa Rica. What would happen to the relatively poor Central American economy when the giant arrived?
Fast forward to 2014 and Intel have announced that they are leaving. Cue some similar questions: what effects have been felt? And what impact will Intel’s departure have?read more...»
This is a timely and important short video report on the future for Indian manufacturing industry.
Onerous regulations, bureaucracy and poor infrastructure have made it difficult for large manufacturers to prosper in low cost mass manufacturing in India. And just as the South Asian nation starts to benefit from the so-called demographic dividend, manufacturers are shifting towards less labour intensive manufacturing techniques. The Financial Times visits JCB and Bharat Forge in the manufacturing hub of Pune to find out moreread more...»
Income and wealth inequality in the UK are higher than most people think they are and higher than they think they should be. These are among the messages of a new online infographics film:read more...»
New data suggests that China will soon overtake the United States with the largest GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity. This short Financial Times video from Chris Giles looks at the new data which are being driven by fresh estimates of what money can buy - i.e. the volume of goods and services that are produced in different countries and what one dollar can buy in one country compared to another. The data finds that poorer countries are cheaper than economists thought they were and richer countries are more expensive.
China barely breaks into the top one hundred of the countries of the world in terms of GDP per capita (PPP) - it is a large country but not rich!
The 2011 gross domestic product (GDP) of the European Union, the United States and China together accounted for half of the world GDP in 2011. In 2011, the GDP of the 28-nations EU represented 18.6 percent of the world's GDP, expressed in Purchasing Power Standards (PPP). It was followed by the United States with a share of 17.1 percent and China with 14.9 percent.read more...»
Boston Consulting Group have produced a fascinating new report which investigates the competitiveness of the world's top 25 goods exporting nations. Their press release highlights significant changes in the world order over the last decade. The newly-minted BCG Global Manufacturing Cost-Competitiveness Index incorporates four factors: energy costs, productivity, wages and exchange rates. That analysis shows that Brazil is now one of the highest-cost countries, and the UK is the cheapest location in western Europe. Mexico now has lower manufacturing costs than China, while costs in much of eastern Europe are basically at parity with the U.S.read more...»
This video from the Economist is relevant to students of development economics. Severe droughts can cost Kenyan farmers their livelihoods. A new insurance scheme aims to protect them from the whims of the environment.read more...»
Here is a Country Profile revision sheet that I have created as part of my revision programme for my A2 students.
The idea is to complete (neatly) one sheet each for six countries – leaving room on the other side for additional useful revision concepts and background context. ideally students will choose at least one African country, a middle income nation, one or more of the BRICS or MINT countries and an EU country other than the UK.
The sheets can be duplicated for class use and make an excellent prompt for discussion. Download a free version by clicking this link. Country_Profile_Revision_Sheet.pdf
Private capital flows are now much bigger than traditional aid and there has been a geographical shift in where the world's poorest people live. This OECD video provides some useful background on these important changes as we head towards changes to post-2015 development goals.read more...»
Measuring the size of an economy is difficult on so many levels. Of course, there’s always the GDP debate, which asks about the best way to measure economic and social progress. But even measuring GDP is a huge challenge. Nigeria has just experienced a vast 89% increase in GDP having ‘rebased’ its figures.read more...»
For many developing countries tourism is already a major part of their economy and a significant source of extra factor incomes and employment. But there is a fierce debate about the economic and social consequences of tourism - what roles can tourism play in economic development? Can travel to developing countries do more harm than good? This revision blog provides some arguments and resources on this topic.read more...»
Using pubic data from the Asian Development Bank here are some illustrations of the structural changes in output that have occurred across a selection of countries in Far East Asia, Australia and New Zealand. Consider the magnitude of the changes that have taken place over the last twenty years. Note for revision which countries appear at the top and the bottom of each individual chart and think about WHY they appear in that position.read more...»
The Gini coefficient is a commonly-used measure of income inequality that condenses the entire income distribution for a country into a single number between 0 and 1: the higher the number, the greater the degree of income inequality.read more...»
Here is a short report on the impact that the widespread uptake of mobile banking is having on Kenyan farmers. Kenya's Mobile banking system M-PESA is widely cited as an example of how mobile money transfer systems can act as a catalyst for growth and development. At least two-thirds of Kenyans use their mobile phones to pay bills, transfer money, pay salaries and now to get loans. The availability of a reliable mobile -payments platform has also spawned a host of mobile phone start-ups helping thousands who don't have bank accounts.read more...»
If you are searching for a vivid example of a country experiencing primary product dependency have a look at this short video report from the Financial Times. The lower middle income west African country is trying to modernise their economy but remains deeply at risk from outside external shocks including over-dependency on a single mineral and terrorist threats. Inequality may be the biggest risk to it's future.read more...»
The new annual report from the Asian Development Bank outlines what developing Asia needs to promote inclusive growth in the years ahead. Governments in the region should tackle widening inequality that is keeping millions poor, by using fiscal policy to help close income and wealth gaps and promote more inclusive growth, says the theme chapter of Asian Development Outlook 2014. The importance of equity in shaping future growth and development continues to gain momentum across the world and not just in the fast-growing Asian region.read more...»
Here are some notes taken from the recent RES panel event on the African economyread more...»
Preferential market access to China is providing an important growth-enhancing outlet for African exporters that find it difficult to break into industrialised countries’ markets. But there remain dangers that current export structures and national capacity constraints may further entrap Africa given its comparative advantage in primary resources and China’s comparative advantage in manufacturing products.read more...»
Removing the barriers to labour market participation that women face in many parts of the world will lead to substantial productivity gains, according to research by Marc Teignier, to be presented at the Royal Economic Society’s 2014 conference.read more...»
The Rwandan economy comes under special focus in 2014 because it is twenty years since the genocide. This blog provides some summary growth and development data and links on Rwanda, a country that is attracting increasing interest from students and teachers as part of their development economics course.read more...»
Europe’s pre-industrial economies provide valuable insights into whether Africa’s recent economic success can be turned into sustained growth. According to research by Professors Stephen Broadberry and Leigh Gardner, to be presented at the Economic History Society’s 2014 annual conference, the European experience suggests that the more important criteria are indicators of institutional quality and structural change.read more...»
Are you studying Mexico as one of your chosen countries of focus for the A2 growth and development paper for EdExcel? If so, this new report from McKinsey might be of particular relevance for you. Either way, there will be plenty of useful comment here on development and growth drivers and constraints.
You may be asking why what sounds like a politics question finds a place on the economics blog. The answer of course is that the issue of governance crops up a lot in economics. Governments have to address the challenges thrown up by market failure, and offer a fiscal framework that helps tackle macroeconomic problems. Regulators intervene in uncompetitive markets. Those of you looking at development economics don’t get far before asking if poor quality government holds back the weakest economies.
Hence the question (above). All rich, developed, mature economies are democracies. Ricardo Hausmann offers and insight into why this might be so on the pages of Project Syndicate.read more...»
In this new RSA Short, Kate Raworth makes a powerful argument to look beyond economic growth alone for a true measure of prosperity and progress. Read more about Kate Raworth's work and her idea of doughnut economics by clicking this link http://www.kateraworth.com and follow her on twitter @KateRaworthread more...»
I thought it worthwhile sharing my resources which I have been collecting for students (and teachers alike). I have been promoting them on Twitter (@Economics_KSF) through scoop.it but for those of you not on there, the link for the scoop.it boards are here:read more...»
Inequality is an issue that remains firmly in the spotlight of the news media and also of policy makers in different countries.read more...»
Pub economics often explains the plight of poor countries in terms of the problems posed by corruption. That approach might have some value, and to raise the quality of your analysis of this topic, it’s helpful to say why and how it might arise, and the effects it might have. Rich countries are also vulnerable of course.
The Economist has a really helpful couple of articles on this topic, which it calls ‘crony capitalism’.read more...»
I was delighted to give a talk to A2 economists at Wilson's School in Surrey today covering some aspects of trade and development economics. In particular we looked at the work of Hidalgo and Hausmann and their newly published Index of Economic Complexity. The slides from my talk are streamed below.read more...»
The Atlas of Economic Complexity is a new book (perfect for the coffee table) from Richard Hausmann and Cesar Hidalgo. It maps out the degree of complexity of individual economies around the world and provides a hugely visual and interesting insight into the importance of knowledge in shaping the future prosperity of countries in the global economy. I have put together a 10 question quiz on some of their key results - a useful activity I hope for students interested in the commodity composition of trade of developed and developing countries. Have a go!read more...»
Inequality might be falling between nations as a global middle class is emerging, but inequality is on the rise within nations. Quite why this is happening is a matter of debate, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has joined in the discussion asking if rising inequality is an obstacle to economic growth and development.read more...»
During the financial crisis, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom and Japan created $3.7 trillion in order to buy assets and encourage investors to do the same. Michael Metcalfe from State Street argues that these same central banks print money to ensure they stay on track with their goals for global aid? Without risking inflation? A Print-Aid matching scheme could boost aid payments by up to 40% or $200 billion.read more...»
In this independent research assignment, Year 12 Economist Doug Feagin considers some of the factors influencing the macroeconomic performance of Mexico - a fascinating country and one of the MINT cluster of countries discussed by Jim O'Neill in his recent programmes for the BBC.read more...»
Economics coverage of Africa can be a bit bleak (though perhaps it shouldn't be, with incomes rising rapidly in parts of Africa). There are often bad news stories, particularly in terms of human development indicators. News of economic progress often centres on the exploitation of primary commodities, with all the risks and issues that presents.
If you hope Africa will experience development, you’re likely to want to see sustained and robust economic growth. That, in turn, will require industrialization.read more...»
Robert Peston looks at the astonishing investment in urban infrastructure in China in recent years - 30 new airports, 26,000 miles of motorways and a new skyscraper every five days have been built in China in the last five years - required viewing for those interested in a key aspect of Chinese economic growth and development. Link to How China Ruled the World (BBC World)read more...»
Here are some links relevant to the June 2014 pre-release case study on economic prospects and challenges for the countries of sub Saharan Africa.
The IMF expects seven of the world’s fastest growing countries during the next five years will be in Sub-Saharan Africa – Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia.read more...»
A new World Bank report looks at the growing scale and scope of welfare safety nets in a number of countries in sub Saharan Africa. We tend to take entitlement and access to welfare provision for granted in high income countries.
What contribution can a welfare system make to promoting inclusive growth and development. Here is the World Bank's slideshow and follow this link for their latest research papers on the topic.read more...»
You all know about exploding rates of urbanisation and the growth of mega cities. There’s much to celebrate in this trend, and economists are keen to advise countries how to urbanise successfully.
After all, for most subsistence farmers, life can be so grim that even life in a slum or shanty town can be a marked improvement. I’ve reluctantly admitted this fact to myself, and come to see slums as a stepping stone on the process of development.
A new study, reported in the Economist, suggests I might be wrong, and that we shouldn’t be ready to tolerate slums, and should be more determined to see their eradication – they might even be a barrier to development.read more...»
Here is a ten question matching-pair quiz covering aspects of development economics - a short revision quiz for A2 macro students created using the free software available from Zondle. Have a go!read more...»
Natural resource economics are applied in this new World Bank blog to the Eurasian region - plenty of overlap with your studies on the issue in the context of sub Saharan Africa and other parts of the world. Click here for the blog article.
Click here for a blog article on the natural resource curse from Graham Watson (2012)
Our streamed revision presentation on the topic is belowread more...»